Sha Tin · 2024-01-13 · 06:40
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-13 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER COMMANDER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by 1, with LIFELINE EXPRESS second and JAMES TAK third. The 1.5 favourite JAMES TAK finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUPER COMMANDER V/TT 0.57.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 12 | 7.8 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | LIFELINE EXPRESS A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 7 | 7.7 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | JAMES TAK E C W Wong · T P Yung | E C W Wong | T P Yung | 6 | 1.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | CHILLI BABA B Y L Chung · P F Yiu | Y L Chung | P F Yiu | 11 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | LESS IS MORE TT1 H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 10 | 24.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | TIMESTORM B2 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 14 | 21.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | WINNING GOLD H/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 8 | 169.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | HERO WARRIOR C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 105.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | RED ELEGANCE H-/CP1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 3 | 22.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 2 | 43.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 5 | 43.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | UNIVERSAL PURSUIT XB L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 56.0 | 12-1/4 |
| — | 2 | METRO WARRIOR Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
| — | 6 | DEEP PURSUIT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JAMES TAK | 33.0% | 3.03 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | LIFELINE EXPRESS | 15.2% | 6.58 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | LESS IS MORE | 14.9% | 6.69 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | SUPER COMMANDER | 8.9% | 11.23 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | CHILLI BABA | 5.6% | 17.90 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | VALIANT ELEGANCE | 5.5% | 18.23 | 11 |
| 7 | 13 | UNIVERSAL PURSUIT | 4.8% | 20.78 | 12 |
| 8 | 14 | TIMESTORM | 4.7% | 21.15 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | RED ELEGANCE | 4.0% | 24.69 | 9 |
| 10 | 4 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN | 1.7% | 59.91 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | WINNING GOLD | 0.9% | 110.25 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | HERO WARRIOR | 0.7% | 152.11 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 78
PLACE
1 10.1
5 17
9 17.5
QUINELLA
5,9 260.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 25.5
1,9 21.5
5,9 73
FORECAST
5,9 520
TIERCE
5,9,1 1,022
TRIO
1,5,9 108
FIRST 4
1,5,9,11 114
QUARTET
5,9,1,11 4,885
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,7/1,2,5,6,9 1,289
3RD DOUBLE
3/5 868.5
3/9 40.5