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Sha Tin · 2024-01-13 · 06:40

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-13 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER COMMANDER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by 1, with LIFELINE EXPRESS second and JAMES TAK third. The 1.5 favourite JAMES TAK finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SUPER COMMANDER V/TT 0.57.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 12 7.8 1
2 9 LIFELINE EXPRESS A Atzeni · J Size 7 7.7 1
3 1 JAMES TAK E C W Wong · T P Yung 6 1.5 1-1/4
4 11 CHILLI BABA B Y L Chung · P F Yiu 11 10.0 2
5 8 LESS IS MORE TT1 H Bowman · F C Lor 10 24.0 2-1/4
6 14 TIMESTORM B2 M F Poon · D J Hall 14 21.0 3-3/4
7 10 WINNING GOLD H/TT K De Melo · W Y So 8 169.0 7-1/4
8 7 HERO WARRIOR C L Chau · T P Yung 1 105.0 8-3/4
9 3 RED ELEGANCE H-/CP1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 3 22.0 9-1/4
10 4 SPARKLING DOLPHIN H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 43.0 10
11 12 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 43.0 10-3/4
12 13 UNIVERSAL PURSUIT XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 56.0 12-1/4
2 METRO WARRIOR Z Purton · D A Hayes
6 DEEP PURSUIT C Y Ho · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER COMMANDER2. LIFELINE EXPRESS+1L3. JAMES TAK+1.25L4. CHILLI BABA+2L5. LESS IS MORE+2.25L6. TIMESTORM+3.75L7. WINNING GOLD+7.25L8. HERO WARRIOR+8.75L9. RED ELEGANCE+9.25L10. SPARKLING DOLPHIN+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick JAMES TAK (33.0%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPER COMMANDER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 JAMES TAK 33.0% 3.03 3
2 9 LIFELINE EXPRESS 15.2% 6.58 2
3 8 LESS IS MORE 14.9% 6.69 5
4 5 SUPER COMMANDER 8.9% 11.23 1
5 11 CHILLI BABA 5.6% 17.90 4
6 12 VALIANT ELEGANCE 5.5% 18.23 11
7 13 UNIVERSAL PURSUIT 4.8% 20.78 12
8 14 TIMESTORM 4.7% 21.15 6
9 3 RED ELEGANCE 4.0% 24.69 9
10 4 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 1.7% 59.91 10
11 10 WINNING GOLD 0.9% 110.25 7
12 7 HERO WARRIOR 0.7% 152.11 8
JAMES TAKLIFELINE EXPRESSLESS IS MORESUPER COMMANDER — wonCHILLI BABAVALIANT ELEGANCEUNIVERSAL PURSUITTIMESTORMRED ELEGANCESPARKLING DOLPHINWINNING GOLDHERO WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 78

PLACE

1 10.1

5 17

9 17.5

QUINELLA

5,9 260.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 25.5

1,9 21.5

5,9 73

FORECAST

5,9 520

TIERCE

5,9,1 1,022

TRIO

1,5,9 108

FIRST 4

1,5,9,11 114

QUARTET

5,9,1,11 4,885

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,7/1,2,5,6,9 1,289

3RD DOUBLE

3/5 868.5

3/9 40.5