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Sha Tin · 2024-01-13 · 07:40

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-13 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. HOLY LAKE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with ARIEL second and LUCKY ETERNITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite BEATO finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.36.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 HOLY LAKE Closed strongly B/XB 1.36.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 11.0 1/2
2 4 ARIEL Led early CP/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes 10 9.2 1/2
3 7 LUCKY ETERNITY Closed strongly CP H Bowman · T P Yung 7 6.5 1-3/4
4 2 BEER PALACE Closed strongly B K Teetan · M Newnham 4 17.0 2
5 10 CHATEAU Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size 2 5.2 2-1/4
6 11 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly B Avdulla · C W Chang 11 15.0 3
7 8 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC H Bentley · P C Ng 13 22.0 3-1/2
8 3 BEATO B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 5 2.9 3-3/4
9 9 ROBOT FIGHTER C L Chau · K L Man 1 65.0 4-1/2
10 13 G LINER H/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards 12 48.0 5
11 14 SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 14 50.0 6-1/2
12 6 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP B M F Poon · P F Yiu 3 42.0 6-1/2
13 5 UP AND UP TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 9 111.0 9-1/4
14 12 NORTHERN BEAST B A Hamelin · D J Hall 6 13.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOLY LAKE2. ARIEL+0.5L3. LUCKY ETERNITY+1.75L4. BEER PALACE+2L5. CHATEAU+2.25L6. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+3L7. WINNING STEPS+3.5L8. BEATO+3.75L9. ROBOT FIGHTER+4.5L10. G LINER+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEATO (19.9%) finished 8th — the winner HOLY LAKE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BEATO 19.9% 5.02 8
2 7 LUCKY ETERNITY 12.2% 8.20 3
3 10 CHATEAU 9.9% 10.06 5
4 1 HOLY LAKE 9.2% 10.87 1
5 4 ARIEL 8.8% 11.37 2
6 2 BEER PALACE 8.3% 12.08 4
7 13 G LINER 6.5% 15.29 10
8 6 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP 5.2% 19.34 12
9 11 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 5.0% 20.06 6
10 12 NORTHERN BEAST 4.1% 24.56 14
11 14 SPLENDID STAR 4.0% 24.94 11
12 8 WINNING STEPS 3.7% 26.95 7
13 9 ROBOT FIGHTER 2.0% 49.46 9
14 5 UP AND UP 1.2% 85.00 13
BEATOLUCKY ETERNITYCHATEAUHOLY LAKE — wonARIELBEER PALACEG LINERJOYFUL FRIENDSHIPJOYFUL PROSPERITYNORTHERN BEASTSPLENDID STARWINNING STEPSROBOT FIGHTERUP AND UP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 110.5

PLACE

1 34

4 29

7 19.5

QUINELLA

1,4 494

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 147

1,7 92

4,7 120

FORECAST

1,4 973

TIERCE

1,4,7 5,692

TRIO

1,4,7 1,024

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 2,339

QUARTET

1,4,7,2 61,279

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,9/1,4,7 128,576

5TH DOUBLE

8/1 475

8/4 96.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,2,5,6,9/7,8,9/1,4,7 1,550,446

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,5,6,9/7,8,9/Any Combination 817