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Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 05:40

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN RISE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/2, with RIVER VIEWS second and FIGHT TIME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 GOLDEN RISE Closed strongly 1.22.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 2 2.2 1-1/2
2 9 RIVER VIEWS Led early K Teetan · T P Yung 5 10.0 1-1/2
3 5 FIGHT TIME Closed strongly B1/TT1 M F Poon · D J Hall 1 102.0 2-3/4
4 6 CALIFORNIATOTALITY Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 3.6 3
5 8 DEVAS TWELVE Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 13.0 3-1/4
6 12 NISHIKADO B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 4 34.0 3-3/4
7 2 CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT H Bowman · K L Man 14 10.0 3-3/4
8 3 FAST VICTORY Closed strongly K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 135.0 4-1/2
9 1 CHARITY BINGO Closed strongly J McDonald · C S Shum 10 15.0 6-1/4
10 4 GALVANIC TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 13.0 7-1/4
11 13 AMAZINGTEAMWORK Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W K Mo 12 189.0 8-3/4
12 10 SUNNY SHINES A Atzeni · P C Ng 13 244.0 10-3/4
13 14 BULB PRINCE H2/TT- A Hamelin · C H Yip 3 85.0 15-1/2
0 PRINCE CHISWICK A Badel · P F Yiu
11 NATURAL GOLD XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 11 44.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN RISE2. RIVER VIEWS+1.5L3. FIGHT TIME+2.75L4. CALIFORNIATOTALITY+3L5. DEVAS TWELVE+3.25L6. NISHIKADO+3.75L7. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+3.75L8. FAST VICTORY+4.5L9. CHARITY BINGO+6.25L10. GALVANIC+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GOLDEN RISE (32.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 GOLDEN RISE 32.0% 3.13 1
2 9 RIVER VIEWS 11.8% 8.47 2
3 4 GALVANIC 10.2% 9.77 10
4 8 DEVAS TWELVE 7.6% 13.14 5
5 6 CALIFORNIATOTALITY 7.5% 13.26 4
6 5 FIGHT TIME 7.4% 13.44 3
7 2 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 7.2% 13.93 7
8 1 CHARITY BINGO 6.1% 16.35 9
9 12 NISHIKADO 4.6% 21.86 6
10 14 BULB PRINCE 2.4% 41.59 13
11 13 AMAZINGTEAMWORK 1.9% 53.22 11
12 10 SUNNY SHINES 0.8% 132.04 12
13 3 FAST VICTORY 0.5% 203.59 8
GOLDEN RISE — wonRIVER VIEWSGALVANICDEVAS TWELVECALIFORNIATOTALITYFIGHT TIMECIRCUIT MIGHTYCHARITY BINGONISHIKADOBULB PRINCEAMAZINGTEAMWORKSUNNY SHINESFAST VICTORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 22.5

PLACE

5 180

7 11.5

9 24.5

QUINELLA

7,9 92

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 290.5

5,9 791.5

7,9 38.5

FORECAST

7,9 144

TIERCE

7,9,5 4,726

TRIO

5,7,9 1,941

FIRST 4

5,6,7,9 1,219

QUARTET

7,9,5,6 22,412

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/7 159.5

7/9 113

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,14/5,7,9 144,965