Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 06:40

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. RUBYLOT, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with MIDORI BEAUTY second and SPEEDY FORTUNE third. The 1.9 favourite FUN ELITE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 0.57.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 RUBYLOT CP- 0.57.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D A Hayes 5 7.4 N
2 1 MIDORI BEAUTY TT K De Melo · W Y So 13 33.0 N
3 12 SPEEDY FORTUNE Z Purton · J Size 12 5.6 1/2
4 14 JAZZ CLUB M Chadwick · K L Man 9 100.0 1
5 7 SKY TRUST TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 35.0 3
6 3 FUN ELITE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 1.9 3-1/2
7 6 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte 11 57.0 4
8 2 SUPER COMMANDER V/TT E C W Wong · P C Ng 3 10.0 4
9 13 HO HO STAR B1/TT A Badel · C H Yip 7 34.0 5-1/4
10 9 PANDA B K Teetan · C H Yip 14 8.6 5-1/2
11 11 HAYDAY H/P/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 6 38.0 6
12 8 GLORY B H H Bentley · D J Whyte 4 143.0 8-1/2
13 5 SUPER AXIOM H/P/XB Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 2 48.0 11
14 10 SAME TO YOU H/P1 K C Leung · M Newnham 1 195.0 12-1/2
0 RISE COMPANIONS J McDonald · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUBYLOT2. MIDORI BEAUTY+0.05L3. SPEEDY FORTUNE+0.5L4. JAZZ CLUB+1L5. SKY TRUST+3L6. FUN ELITE+3.5L7. VALIANT ELEGANCE+4L8. SUPER COMMANDER+4L9. HO HO STAR+5.25L10. PANDA+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FUN ELITE (21.4%) finished 6th — the winner RUBYLOT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 FUN ELITE 21.4% 4.67 6
2 4 RUBYLOT 21.0% 4.77 1
3 7 SKY TRUST 11.6% 8.60 5
4 2 SUPER COMMANDER 10.3% 9.71 8
5 12 SPEEDY FORTUNE 8.1% 12.38 3
6 9 PANDA 7.5% 13.35 10
7 1 MIDORI BEAUTY 4.7% 21.10 2
8 6 VALIANT ELEGANCE 3.0% 33.39 7
9 5 SUPER AXIOM 2.8% 36.13 13
10 14 JAZZ CLUB 2.7% 37.35 4
11 13 HO HO STAR 2.5% 40.06 9
12 11 HAYDAY 2.3% 43.45 11
13 8 GLORY B 1.4% 70.99 12
14 10 SAME TO YOU 0.7% 134.32 14
FUN ELITERUBYLOT — wonSKY TRUSTSUPER COMMANDERSPEEDY FORTUNEPANDAMIDORI BEAUTYVALIANT ELEGANCESUPER AXIOMJAZZ CLUBHO HO STARHAYDAYGLORY BSAME TO YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 74

PLACE

1 64

4 20

12 15

QUINELLA

1,4 1,269.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 273.5

1,12 215

4,12 56.5

FORECAST

4,1 1,677

TIERCE

4,1,12 16,239

TRIO

1,4,12 1,683

FIRST 4

1,4,12,14 21,151

QUARTET

4,1,12,14 335,062

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,8/1,4,12 13,002

3RD DOUBLE

2/1 120

2/4 126