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Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 16:08

Race 7

Group 1 GOOD 1600m Course A 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.33.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 VOYAGE BUBBLE Closed strongly CP 1.33.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · P F Yiu 3 1.9 1-1/4
2 0 BEAUTY ETERNAL Z Purton · J Size 8 3.3 1-1/4
3 0 BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 5 12.0 2-1/4
4 0 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Led early CP1/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 2 5.8 3-1/2
5 0 FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 81.0 4-1/4
6 0 STRAIGHT ARRON C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 11.0 4-1/2
7 0 RUSSIAN EMPEROR SR A Atzeni · D J Whyte 6 70.0 5
8 0 HEALTHY HAPPY V/TT A Badel · F C Lor 7 49.0 23-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Group 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. VOYAGE BUBBLE, ridden by J McDonald and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with BEAUTY ETERNAL second and BEAUTY JOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VOYAGE BUBBLE—2. BEAUTY ETERNAL+1.25L3. BEAUTY JOY+2.25L4. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE+3.5L5. FANTASTIC TREASURE+4.25L6. STRAIGHT ARRON+4.5L7. RUSSIAN EMPEROR+5L8. HEALTHY HAPPY+23.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEAUTY ETERNAL (32.0%) finished 2nd — the winner VOYAGE BUBBLE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY ETERNAL 32.0% 3.13 2
2 0 VOYAGE BUBBLE 24.2% 4.12 1
3 0 STRAIGHT ARRON 20.1% 4.97 6
4 0 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE 5.6% 17.76 4
5 0 BEAUTY JOY 5.6% 17.85 3
6 0 HEALTHY HAPPY 4.9% 20.56 8
7 0 RUSSIAN EMPEROR 4.4% 22.76 7
8 0 FANTASTIC TREASURE 3.2% 31.61 5
BEAUTY ETERNALVOYAGE BUBBLE — wonSTRAIGHT ARRONCALIFORNIA SPANGLEBEAUTY JOYHEALTHY HAPPYRUSSIAN EMPERORFANTASTIC TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 19

PLACE

2 12

5 11

6 21

QUINELLA

2,5 31.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 16

2,6 32

5,6 39.5

FORECAST

2,5 59

TIERCE

2,5,6 185

TRIO

2,5,6 61

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 49

QUARTET

2,5,6,1 455

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

11/2 272.5

11/5 93.5