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Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. RATTAN WORLD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by SH, with SWEET DIAMOND second and MILLENNIUM FALCON third. The 6.1 favourite MILLENNIUM FALCON finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 RATTAN WORLD PC-/B2/TT 1.10.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 10 6.8 SH
2 5 SWEET DIAMOND TT A Badel · P F Yiu 6 6.9 SH
3 14 MILLENNIUM FALCON TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 4 6.1 1/2
4 12 GREAT DAYS P-/H/XB/PC1 K Teetan · P C Ng 8 12.0 1-3/4
5 13 FIGHTING STAR B B Avdulla · C H Yip 13 11.0 1-3/4
6 2 NORDIC COMBINED B/TT J McDonald · W Y So 5 9.6 2
7 4 SPANGLE FORTUNE CP-/B1/TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 20.0 2
8 6 CASA LEGEND XB-/B/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang 12 21.0 3-1/2
9 1 DAILY TROPHY TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 7.1 3-3/4
10 3 CHOICERUS B H Bowman · D J Whyte 1 8.3 4-1/2
11 11 DASHING GLORY B-/H1/TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 7 55.0 5-1/4
12 10 FINGERS CROSSED B-/XB/TT M Chadwick · M Newnham 11 39.0 5-1/4
13 9 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 14 26.0 5-1/4
14 8 ALL IS READY B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 9 18.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RATTAN WORLD2. SWEET DIAMOND+0.1L3. MILLENNIUM FALCON+0.5L4. GREAT DAYS+1.75L5. FIGHTING STAR+1.75L6. NORDIC COMBINED+2L7. SPANGLE FORTUNE+2L8. CASA LEGEND+3.5L9. DAILY TROPHY+3.75L10. CHOICERUS+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RATTAN WORLD (15.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 RATTAN WORLD 15.9% 6.31 1
2 2 NORDIC COMBINED 12.2% 8.21 6
3 1 DAILY TROPHY 9.2% 10.82 9
4 8 ALL IS READY 9.1% 11.00 14
5 12 GREAT DAYS 7.8% 12.79 4
6 6 CASA LEGEND 7.7% 12.98 8
7 5 SWEET DIAMOND 7.6% 13.08 2
8 3 CHOICERUS 6.5% 15.33 10
9 13 FIGHTING STAR 5.1% 19.75 5
10 4 SPANGLE FORTUNE 5.0% 19.80 7
11 14 MILLENNIUM FALCON 4.3% 23.51 3
12 10 FINGERS CROSSED 3.5% 28.72 12
13 11 DASHING GLORY 3.4% 29.40 11
14 9 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 2.7% 37.06 13
RATTAN WORLD — wonNORDIC COMBINEDDAILY TROPHYALL IS READYGREAT DAYSCASA LEGENDSWEET DIAMONDCHOICERUSFIGHTING STARSPANGLE FORTUNEMILLENNIUM FALCONFINGERS CROSSEDDASHING GLORYEIGHT TRIGRAMS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 68.5

PLACE

5 27.5

7 26

14 25

QUINELLA

5,7 297

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 109

5,14 130.5

7,14 88.5

FORECAST

7,5 496

TIERCE

7,5,14 4,877

TRIO

5,7,14 796

FIRST 4

5,7,12,14 2,638

QUARTET

7,5,14,12 46,803