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Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 15:02

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPERB KID Closed strongly 1.22.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K W Lui 8 6.6 N
2 0 SUNLIGHT POWER Closed strongly CP/H/XB1 H Bentley · P F Yiu 14 19.0 N
3 0 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 1 13.0 1-1/2
4 0 GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly XB/TT J McDonald · C S Shum 7 6.2 1-3/4
5 0 FUN N GLORY Led early TT C Y Ho · W Y So 9 44.0 2-3/4
6 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT B Z Purton · K L Man 6 4.8 2-3/4
7 0 LUCKY PLANET B K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 4.1 3-1/4
8 0 PRIME MORTAR Closed strongly XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 13 45.0 3-3/4
9 0 TAKE ACTION B Avdulla · J Size 4 7.4 4
10 0 FREE FOAL V K C Leung · F C Lor 2 13.0 4-3/4
11 0 SETANTA B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 12 23.0 5-1/4
12 0 MERCHANT PRINCE Closed strongly V/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 11 178.0 5-3/4
13 0 FURY AND GOLD K De Melo · C H Yip 5 197.0 7-1/4
14 0 SMART FOLKS B/SR A Hamelin · C W Chang 10 69.0 8-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB KID, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with SUNLIGHT POWER second and CIRCUIT NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite LUCKY PLANET finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERB KID—2. SUNLIGHT POWER+0.05L3. CIRCUIT NINE+1.5L4. GOLDEN BULL+1.75L5. FUN N GLORY+2.75L6. COMPASSION SPIRIT+2.75L7. LUCKY PLANET+3.25L8. PRIME MORTAR+3.75L9. TAKE ACTION+4L10. FREE FOAL+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY PLANET (17.9%) finished 7th — the winner SUPERB KID was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LUCKY PLANET 17.9% 5.59 7
2 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 14.4% 6.96 6
3 0 CIRCUIT NINE 13.3% 7.51 3
4 0 TAKE ACTION 10.7% 9.35 9
5 0 GOLDEN BULL 10.0% 10.01 4
6 0 SUNLIGHT POWER 6.1% 16.42 2
7 0 FUN N GLORY 6.0% 16.81 5
8 0 FREE FOAL 5.1% 19.59 10
9 0 PRIME MORTAR 5.0% 19.88 8
10 0 SETANTA 4.5% 22.47 11
11 0 SUPERB KID 3.5% 28.36 1
12 0 SMART FOLKS 2.4% 42.05 14
13 0 MERCHANT PRINCE 0.6% 155.16 12
14 0 FURY AND GOLD 0.6% 175.77 13
LUCKY PLANETCOMPASSION SPIRITCIRCUIT NINETAKE ACTIONGOLDEN BULLSUNLIGHT POWERFUN N GLORYFREE FOALPRIME MORTARSETANTASUPERB KID — wonSMART FOLKSMERCHANT PRINCEFURY AND GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 66

PLACE

3 22

10 54

11 42.5

QUINELLA

3,10 565

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 175

3,11 144

10,11 353

FORECAST

3,10 984

TIERCE

3,10,11 9,336

TRIO

3,10,11 2,156

FIRST 4

3,6,10,11 3,896

QUARTET

3,10,11,6 92,922

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/4/3 1,225

2/4/10 601

4TH DOUBLE

4/3 394.5

4/10 247