Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 07:05
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB KID, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with SUNLIGHT POWER second and CIRCUIT NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite LUCKY PLANET finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SUPERB KID Closed strongly 1.22.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K W Lui | H Bowman | K W Lui | 8 | 6.6 | N |
| 2 | 10 | SUNLIGHT POWER Closed strongly CP/H/XB1 H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 14 | 19.0 | N |
| 3 | 11 | CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo | A Atzeni | W K Mo | 1 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly XB/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 7 | 6.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | FUN N GLORY Led early TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 9 | 44.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 6 | 4.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 14 | LUCKY PLANET B K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 3 | 4.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | PRIME MORTAR Closed strongly XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 13 | 45.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | TAKE ACTION B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 7.4 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | FREE FOAL V K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 2 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | SETANTA B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 12 | 23.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | MERCHANT PRINCE Closed strongly V/TT M L Yeung · J Richards | M L Yeung | J Richards | 11 | 178.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | FURY AND GOLD K De Melo · C H Yip | K De Melo | C H Yip | 5 | 197.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | SMART FOLKS B/SR A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 10 | 69.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | LUCKY PLANET | 17.9% | 5.59 | 7 |
| 2 | 2 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 14.4% | 6.96 | 6 |
| 3 | 11 | CIRCUIT NINE | 13.3% | 7.51 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | TAKE ACTION | 10.7% | 9.35 | 9 |
| 5 | 6 | GOLDEN BULL | 10.0% | 10.01 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | SUNLIGHT POWER | 6.1% | 16.42 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | FUN N GLORY | 6.0% | 16.81 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | FREE FOAL | 5.1% | 19.59 | 10 |
| 9 | 5 | PRIME MORTAR | 5.0% | 19.88 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | SETANTA | 4.5% | 22.47 | 11 |
| 11 | 3 | SUPERB KID | 3.5% | 28.36 | 1 |
| 12 | 13 | SMART FOLKS | 2.4% | 42.05 | 14 |
| 13 | 12 | MERCHANT PRINCE | 0.6% | 155.16 | 12 |
| 14 | 7 | FURY AND GOLD | 0.6% | 175.77 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 66
PLACE
3 22
10 54
11 42.5
QUINELLA
3,10 565
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 175
3,11 144
10,11 353
FORECAST
3,10 984
TIERCE
3,10,11 9,336
TRIO
3,10,11 2,156
FIRST 4
3,6,10,11 3,896
QUARTET
3,10,11,6 92,922
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
2/4/3 1,225
2/4/10 601
4TH DOUBLE
4/3 394.5
4/10 247