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Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB KID, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with SUNLIGHT POWER second and CIRCUIT NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite LUCKY PLANET finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SUPERB KID Closed strongly 1.22.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K W Lui 8 6.6 N
2 10 SUNLIGHT POWER Closed strongly CP/H/XB1 H Bentley · P F Yiu 14 19.0 N
3 11 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 1 13.0 1-1/2
4 6 GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly XB/TT J McDonald · C S Shum 7 6.2 1-3/4
5 4 FUN N GLORY Led early TT C Y Ho · W Y So 9 44.0 2-3/4
6 2 COMPASSION SPIRIT B Z Purton · K L Man 6 4.8 2-3/4
7 14 LUCKY PLANET B K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 4.1 3-1/4
8 5 PRIME MORTAR Closed strongly XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 13 45.0 3-3/4
9 8 TAKE ACTION B Avdulla · J Size 4 7.4 4
10 9 FREE FOAL V K C Leung · F C Lor 2 13.0 4-3/4
11 1 SETANTA B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 12 23.0 5-1/4
12 12 MERCHANT PRINCE Closed strongly V/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 11 178.0 5-3/4
13 7 FURY AND GOLD K De Melo · C H Yip 5 197.0 7-1/4
14 13 SMART FOLKS B/SR A Hamelin · C W Chang 10 69.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERB KID2. SUNLIGHT POWER+0.05L3. CIRCUIT NINE+1.5L4. GOLDEN BULL+1.75L5. FUN N GLORY+2.75L6. COMPASSION SPIRIT+2.75L7. LUCKY PLANET+3.25L8. PRIME MORTAR+3.75L9. TAKE ACTION+4L10. FREE FOAL+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY PLANET (17.9%) finished 7th — the winner SUPERB KID was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 LUCKY PLANET 17.9% 5.59 7
2 2 COMPASSION SPIRIT 14.4% 6.96 6
3 11 CIRCUIT NINE 13.3% 7.51 3
4 8 TAKE ACTION 10.7% 9.35 9
5 6 GOLDEN BULL 10.0% 10.01 4
6 10 SUNLIGHT POWER 6.1% 16.42 2
7 4 FUN N GLORY 6.0% 16.81 5
8 9 FREE FOAL 5.1% 19.59 10
9 5 PRIME MORTAR 5.0% 19.88 8
10 1 SETANTA 4.5% 22.47 11
11 3 SUPERB KID 3.5% 28.36 1
12 13 SMART FOLKS 2.4% 42.05 14
13 12 MERCHANT PRINCE 0.6% 155.16 12
14 7 FURY AND GOLD 0.6% 175.77 13
LUCKY PLANETCOMPASSION SPIRITCIRCUIT NINETAKE ACTIONGOLDEN BULLSUNLIGHT POWERFUN N GLORYFREE FOALPRIME MORTARSETANTASUPERB KID — wonSMART FOLKSMERCHANT PRINCEFURY AND GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 66

PLACE

3 22

10 54

11 42.5

QUINELLA

3,10 565

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 175

3,11 144

10,11 353

FORECAST

3,10 984

TIERCE

3,10,11 9,336

TRIO

3,10,11 2,156

FIRST 4

3,6,10,11 3,896

QUARTET

3,10,11,6 92,922

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/4/3 1,225

2/4/10 601

4TH DOUBLE

4/3 394.5

4/10 247