Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 08:45
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. NATURAL STORM, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with ENSUED second and C P BRAVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite ENSUED finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B 2.02.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 3 | 55.0 | N |
| 2 | 5 | ENSUED Closed strongly K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 4 | 2.9 | N |
| 3 | 4 | C P BRAVE Closed strongly V J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 6 | 3.4 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | WOODFIRE BRO TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 2 | 5.6 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | BOURBONAIRE Led early H B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 8 | 75.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 13 | KA YING GENERATION Closed strongly B-/PC1 A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 11 | 31.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 13 | 9.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | ELLIPTICAL Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | HAMERON B/TT1 L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 5 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | LOOKING GREAT Closed strongly TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 14 | 134.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | BEAUTY LIVE TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 7 | 117.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 6 | COLUMBUS COUNTY V/TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 12 | 66.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 14 | 14 | ENIGMA TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 10 | 71.0 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ENSUED | 26.8% | 3.73 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | C P BRAVE | 19.8% | 5.05 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | BUTTERFIELD | 10.8% | 9.29 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | WOODFIRE BRO | 7.5% | 13.36 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | THE BEST PEACH | 7.5% | 13.37 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | HAMERON | 6.8% | 14.68 | 10 |
| 7 | 10 | NATURAL STORM | 4.0% | 24.98 | 1 |
| 8 | 6 | COLUMBUS COUNTY | 3.4% | 29.00 | 13 |
| 9 | 13 | KA YING GENERATION | 3.4% | 29.67 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | ELLIPTICAL | 2.9% | 34.77 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | BEAUTY LIVE | 2.6% | 38.49 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | LOOKING GREAT | 2.2% | 45.01 | 11 |
| 13 | 1 | BOURBONAIRE | 1.5% | 67.39 | 6 |
| 14 | 14 | ENIGMA | 0.8% | 121.98 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 557.5
PLACE
4 10.1
5 14.5
10 108.5
11 10.1
QUINELLA
5,10 684
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 10.5
4,10 90.5
4,11 16
5,10 163.5
5,11 14
10,11 130
FORECAST
10,5 1,740
TIERCE
10,5,4 3,773
10,5,11 5,790
TRIO
4,5,10 279
5,10,11 427
FIRST 4
4,5,10,11 541
QUARTET
10,5,4,11 11,784
10,5,11,4 11,893
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,6/4,5,10 1,916
2,5,6/5,10,11 2,640
7TH DOUBLE
2/5 10.5
2/10 673.5