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Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 10:05

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. STORM RIDER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with THE HEIR second and SILVER UP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 STORM RIDER Closed strongly 1.22.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 11 2.6 1-1/4
2 2 THE HEIR Closed strongly H Bowman · C Fownes 1 3.3 1-1/4
3 5 SILVER UP Closed strongly B/H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 10 18.0 1-1/2
4 12 ENDEARED Closed strongly XB A Atzeni · J Size 13 8.1 1-3/4
5 4 RUN RUN COOL Closed strongly PC L Ferraris · F C Lor 5 130.0 2-1/4
6 6 ZOOM BOOM Closed strongly XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 101.0 3
7 10 LOST CHILD Closed strongly B Avdulla · C W Chang 7 11.0 3-1/4
8 8 MIDORI BURLY Closed strongly XB M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 16.0 3-1/2
9 9 D STAR Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 12 54.0 4-1/4
10 1 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE H M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 15.0 5-3/4
11 3 GOLDEN EMPIRE B C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 41.0 6-3/4
12 11 BONUS PAL B K De Melo · P C Ng 4 239.0 7-1/4
13 14 RAGNARR Y L Chung · T P Yung 6 110.0 7-1/2
14 7 HONG KONG HALL Led early TT E C W Wong · D J Hall 9 16.0 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STORM RIDER2. THE HEIR+1.25L3. SILVER UP+1.5L4. ENDEARED+1.75L5. RUN RUN COOL+2.25L6. ZOOM BOOM+3L7. LOST CHILD+3.25L8. MIDORI BURLY+3.5L9. D STAR+4.25L10. ARMOUR WAR EAGLE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STORM RIDER (36.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 STORM RIDER 36.8% 2.72 1
2 2 THE HEIR 19.1% 5.22 2
3 12 ENDEARED 7.6% 13.22 4
4 10 LOST CHILD 6.8% 14.79 7
5 7 HONG KONG HALL 6.3% 15.94 14
6 8 MIDORI BURLY 5.1% 19.52 8
7 1 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 4.6% 21.71 10
8 9 D STAR 3.1% 32.78 9
9 5 SILVER UP 2.6% 38.33 3
10 6 ZOOM BOOM 2.6% 38.45 6
11 3 GOLDEN EMPIRE 2.1% 48.20 11
12 4 RUN RUN COOL 1.8% 55.49 5
13 14 RAGNARR 1.2% 84.75 13
14 11 BONUS PAL 0.4% 263.10 12
STORM RIDER — wonTHE HEIRENDEAREDLOST CHILDHONG KONG HALLMIDORI BURLYARMOUR WAR EAGLED STARSILVER UPZOOM BOOMGOLDEN EMPIRERUN RUN COOLRAGNARRBONUS PAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 26

PLACE

2 14

5 38.5

13 13

QUINELLA

2,13 49

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 111.5

2,13 20.5

5,13 126.5

FORECAST

13,2 69

TIERCE

13,2,5 785

TRIO

2,5,13 247

FIRST 4

2,5,12,13 279

QUARTET

13,2,5,12 3,468

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

10/12/2 3,693

10/12/13 11,435

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,11,12/2,5,13 26,506

9TH DOUBLE

12/2 41

12/13 130

SIX UP

3,10/3,9,11/2,5/5,10/11,12/2,13 1,519

3/11/2/10/12/13 5,274,402

1 [J Size]

1 [Z Purton]