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Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 09:20

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course A 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MUGEN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by 2, with SUPERB BOY second and ATULLIBIGEAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite DANCING CODE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MUGEN Closed strongly 1.21.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 10 4.2 2
2 11 SUPERB BOY Closed strongly TT A Badel · K W Lui 2 13.0 2
3 6 ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly B/H/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 5 7.5 2
4 7 DANCING CODE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 3.8 2-3/4
5 1 RED LION H Bowman · J Size 7 21.0 3-1/2
6 2 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE Closed strongly J McDonald · J Size 9 9.8 4-1/4
7 5 DROMBEG BANNER A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 10.0 5
8 4 FLAMING RABBIT Led early SR-/XB/CP1 Y L Chung · D J Whyte 6 22.0 6-1/4
9 8 EASON V/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 4 112.0 7
10 9 BRAVEHEARTS XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 11 159.0 12
11 3 SAUVESTRE TT L Ferraris · F C Lor 12 75.0 23-1/4
10 GLOBAL HARMONY CP L Hewitson · D A Hayes 3 5.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MUGEN2. SUPERB BOY+2L3. ATULLIBIGEAL+2L4. DANCING CODE+2.75L5. RED LION+3.5L6. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE+4.25L7. DROMBEG BANNER+5L8. FLAMING RABBIT+6.25L9. EASON+7L10. BRAVEHEARTS+12L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MUGEN (17.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 MUGEN 17.4% 5.74 1
2 6 ATULLIBIGEAL 14.4% 6.96 3
3 7 DANCING CODE 13.7% 7.31 4
4 11 SUPERB BOY 13.5% 7.39 2
5 2 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 10.6% 9.45 6
6 5 DROMBEG BANNER 9.2% 10.89 7
7 4 FLAMING RABBIT 6.4% 15.74 8
8 3 SAUVESTRE 6.2% 16.00 11
9 1 RED LION 5.3% 18.94 5
10 8 EASON 2.4% 41.34 9
11 9 BRAVEHEARTS 0.9% 108.35 10
MUGEN — wonATULLIBIGEALDANCING CODESUPERB BOYHOWDEEPISYOURLOVEDROMBEG BANNERFLAMING RABBITSAUVESTRERED LIONEASONBRAVEHEARTS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 42.5

PLACE

6 25

11 39.5

12 16

QUINELLA

11,12 304

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 143.5

6,12 71

11,12 95

FORECAST

12,11 497

TIERCE

12,11,6 3,121

TRIO

6,11,12 791

FIRST 4

6,7,11,12 630

QUARTET

12,11,6,7 14,422

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

10/11 1,083

10/12 3,711.5