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Sha Tin · 2024-01-21 · 07:40

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MASSIVE TALENT, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by M Newnham, won by 1, with GENEVA second and SUPER GOLDI third. The 1.9 favourite GENEVA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 MASSIVE TALENT CP/TT1 1.10.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · M Newnham 3 11.0 1
2 3 GENEVA H Bowman · D J Hall 4 1.9 1
3 1 SUPER GOLDI K C Leung · F C Lor 9 6.8 1
4 14 STRATHPEFFER B K Teetan · D J Whyte 6 5.9 2-3/4
5 8 GANGNAM STAR TT H Bentley · P C Ng 2 21.0 3-1/2
6 6 MANYTHANKS FOREVER TT A Atzeni · J Richards 1 43.0 3-3/4
7 12 PO ON WAY B A Hamelin · K H Ting 10 20.0 4-1/4
8 2 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 5 37.0 5
9 10 GO HERO H1 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 12 106.0 5-1/4
10 4 EVER VICTORIOUS XB1/TT- C Y Ho · P F Yiu 11 77.0 7-1/2
11 7 PINGWU SPARKLE B/TT J McDonald · T P Yung 14 35.0 8-1/4
12 13 VANTASTIC CHOICE A Badel · C H Yip 13 12.0 10-1/2
13 5 LE MAILLOT JAUNE B1/TT1 Y L Chung · W K Mo 7 162.0 14-3/4
0 HANDSOME BOMB C Y Ho · W Y So
9 COMPASSION SUPER M L Yeung · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASSIVE TALENT2. GENEVA+1L3. SUPER GOLDI+1L4. STRATHPEFFER+2.75L5. GANGNAM STAR+3.5L6. MANYTHANKS FOREVER+3.75L7. PO ON WAY+4.25L8. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+5L9. GO HERO+5.25L10. EVER VICTORIOUS+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GENEVA (31.5%) finished 2nd — the winner MASSIVE TALENT was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 GENEVA 31.5% 3.17 2
2 1 SUPER GOLDI 15.8% 6.31 3
3 14 STRATHPEFFER 8.5% 11.74 4
4 13 VANTASTIC CHOICE 7.6% 13.11 12
5 8 GANGNAM STAR 7.4% 13.55 5
6 7 PINGWU SPARKLE 6.8% 14.72 11
7 6 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 4.5% 22.18 6
8 5 LE MAILLOT JAUNE 4.3% 23.27 13
9 11 MASSIVE TALENT 3.7% 27.34 1
10 12 PO ON WAY 3.1% 32.25 7
11 2 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 3.1% 32.44 8
12 4 EVER VICTORIOUS 2.0% 51.24 10
13 10 GO HERO 1.7% 58.26 9
GENEVASUPER GOLDISTRATHPEFFERVANTASTIC CHOICEGANGNAM STARPINGWU SPARKLEMANYTHANKS FOREVERLE MAILLOT JAUNEMASSIVE TALENT — wonPO ON WAYTRIUMPHANT WARRIOREVER VICTORIOUSGO HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 116

PLACE

1 22.5

3 10.1

11 26.5

QUINELLA

3,11 137.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 33

1,11 153.5

3,11 49

FORECAST

11,3 376

TIERCE

11,3,1 2,603

TRIO

1,3,11 317

FIRST 4

1,3,11,14 242

QUARTET

11,3,1,14 8,756

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,10,11/1,11>3,9 206,189

5TH DOUBLE

3/3,9 26.5

3/11 1,378

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,12/3,10,11/Any Combination 283,522