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Sha Tin · 2024-02-18 · 09:54

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 11 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-18 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ADEFILL, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with MASSIVE ACTION second and YELLOWFIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite FRANTANCK finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.38.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ADEFILL Closed strongly B 1.38.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P F Yiu 9 5.2 3/4
2 10 MASSIVE ACTION Led early SR/V K Teetan · F C Lor 8 18.0 3/4
3 2 YELLOWFIN Closed strongly XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 6.1 1-1/2
4 12 FRANTANCK Closed strongly H1 Z Purton · P C Ng 2 3.4 1-1/2
5 11 AMAZING DUCK CP M F Poon · K H Ting 10 35.0 1-3/4
6 6 FIERY DIAMOND V- C L Chau · T P Yung 5 18.0 1-3/4
7 4 SO WE JOY Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang 7 9.8 4
8 9 SELF IMPROVEMENT B-/TT B Avdulla · K L Man 1 6.0 4-1/4
9 8 LESLIE Closed strongly B-/PC1 K C Leung · C W Chang 12 19.0 5-1/2
10 1 TRUE LEGEND B-/CP2/TT B Thompson · W K Mo 6 64.0 19
11 13 NORDIC STAR B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 11 21.0 22
5 PERFECT TEAM E C W Wong · C Fownes
7 BEAUTYVERSE B-/H-/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 20.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ADEFILL2. MASSIVE ACTION+0.75L3. YELLOWFIN+1.5L4. FRANTANCK+1.5L5. AMAZING DUCK+1.75L6. FIERY DIAMOND+1.75L7. SO WE JOY+4L8. SELF IMPROVEMENT+4.25L9. LESLIE+5.5L10. TRUE LEGEND+19L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FRANTANCK (34.1%) finished 4th — the winner ADEFILL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 FRANTANCK 34.1% 2.93 4
2 2 YELLOWFIN 15.5% 6.45 3
3 3 ADEFILL 10.8% 9.23 1
4 4 SO WE JOY 7.3% 13.79 7
5 9 SELF IMPROVEMENT 6.2% 16.26 8
6 13 NORDIC STAR 5.6% 17.87 11
7 10 MASSIVE ACTION 4.8% 20.93 2
8 11 AMAZING DUCK 4.7% 21.48 5
9 8 LESLIE 4.4% 22.58 9
10 6 FIERY DIAMOND 4.4% 22.79 6
11 1 TRUE LEGEND 2.3% 43.02 10
FRANTANCKYELLOWFINADEFILL — wonSO WE JOYSELF IMPROVEMENTNORDIC STARMASSIVE ACTIONAMAZING DUCKLESLIEFIERY DIAMONDTRUE LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 52

PLACE

2 21.5

3 17

10 47.5

QUINELLA

3,10 458.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 47.5

2,10 205.5

3,10 148.5

FORECAST

3,10 808

TIERCE

3,10,2 7,430

TRIO

2,3,10 983

FIRST 4

2,3,10,12 708

QUARTET

3,10,2,12 23,706

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

3/6/3 5,339

3/6/10 3,992

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,7/2,3,10 40,442

9TH DOUBLE

6/3 966

6/10 504

SIX UP

12/1/8/3/6/3 1,790,289

12,13/1,8/6,8/3,9/6,7/3,10 114,694

2 [K Teetan]

1 [J Size]