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Sha Tin · 2024-02-18 · 08:45

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-18 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ATULLIBIGEAL, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with SUPERB BOY second and DROMBEG BANNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite GLOBAL HARMONY did not finish.

Result

Official · 1.22.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly B/H/XB 1.22.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D J Hall 3 8.2 3/4
2 9 SUPERB BOY Closed strongly TT A Badel · K W Lui 4 7.0 3/4
3 2 DROMBEG BANNER Led early A Atzeni · P C Ng 1 8.3 1-3/4
4 5 GUMMY GUMMY Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 8 7.6 3
5 6 ALACRITY Closed strongly PC/XB/TT K Teetan · J Richards 9 12.0 3-1/4
6 8 YOUTHFUL DEAL Closed strongly SR/TT B Thompson · F C Lor 5 63.0 4-1/4
7 7 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 10 17.0 4-1/4
8 4 KEEFY B K C Leung · F C Lor 11 49.0 6-1/4
9 10 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 2 87.0 6-1/4
10 12 SILVER KING TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 12 26.0 8
11 1 GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP/TT Y L Chung · P F Yiu 6 48.0 10-1/4
11 GLOBAL HARMONY CP-/B1 Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 2.2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ATULLIBIGEAL2. SUPERB BOY+0.75L3. DROMBEG BANNER+1.75L4. GUMMY GUMMY+3L5. ALACRITY+3.25L6. YOUTHFUL DEAL+4.25L7. FIND MY LOVE+4.25L8. KEEFY+6.25L9. BERLIN TANGO+6.25L10. SILVER KING+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GUMMY GUMMY (22.1%) finished 4th — the winner ATULLIBIGEAL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 GUMMY GUMMY 22.1% 4.52 4
2 9 SUPERB BOY 17.9% 5.59 2
3 6 ALACRITY 13.1% 7.63 5
4 2 DROMBEG BANNER 12.7% 7.90 3
5 3 ATULLIBIGEAL 6.6% 15.05 1
6 1 GOOD LUCK FRIEND 5.7% 17.64 11
7 12 SILVER KING 5.5% 18.20 10
8 8 YOUTHFUL DEAL 5.1% 19.49 6
9 10 BERLIN TANGO 5.1% 19.76 9
10 4 KEEFY 3.2% 31.54 8
11 7 FIND MY LOVE 3.1% 32.75 7
GUMMY GUMMYSUPERB BOYALACRITYDROMBEG BANNERATULLIBIGEAL — wonGOOD LUCK FRIENDSILVER KINGYOUTHFUL DEALBERLIN TANGOKEEFYFIND MY LOVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 82.5

PLACE

2 26.5

3 22.5

9 21.5

QUINELLA

3,9 213.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 89.5

2,9 79.5

3,9 65

FORECAST

3,9 466

TIERCE

3,9,2 2,773

TRIO

2,3,9 396

FIRST 4

2,3,5,9 549

QUARTET

3,9,2,5 13,733

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,8/2,3,9 218,172

7TH DOUBLE

8/3 1,025.5

8/9 167.5