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Sha Tin · 2024-02-18 · 08:16

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-18 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. VICTORY MOMENTS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/2, with GOOD BUDDY second and SMOKEY BEAR third. The 4.7 favourite SKY FOREVER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.08.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 VICTORY MOMENTS SR/TT 1.08.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor 10 14.0 1-1/2
2 6 GOOD BUDDY B/TT A Badel · D J Hall 11 17.0 1-1/2
3 3 SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT Z Purton · C W Chang 12 7.1 1-3/4
4 4 TORONADO PHANTOM P2/TT K Teetan · J Size 7 8.4 2-1/2
5 7 SKY FOREVER B/TT B Avdulla · K L Man 5 4.7 2-3/4
6 10 MARK THE MOMENT V/TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 6 5.9 2-3/4
7 12 SPORTS LEGEND TT M L Yeung · C S Shum 4 12.0 4
8 5 BABY CRYSTAL B/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 8 6.3 4-3/4
9 1 ARMOUR EAGLE B-/XB/PC1/TT E C W Wong · J Richards 2 19.0 6-1/2
10 9 CALIFORNIA TOUCH H-/TT B Thompson · W K Mo 1 43.0 7
11 11 MONTA FRUTTA H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 9 10.0 7
12 2 GOLDENFIELD P1/TT1 K De Melo · W Y So 3 30.0 24-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VICTORY MOMENTS2. GOOD BUDDY+1.5L3. SMOKEY BEAR+1.75L4. TORONADO PHANTOM+2.5L5. SKY FOREVER+2.75L6. MARK THE MOMENT+2.75L7. SPORTS LEGEND+4L8. BABY CRYSTAL+4.75L9. ARMOUR EAGLE+6.5L10. CALIFORNIA TOUCH+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BABY CRYSTAL (19.5%) finished 8th — the winner VICTORY MOMENTS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BABY CRYSTAL 19.5% 5.12 8
2 3 SMOKEY BEAR 11.5% 8.70 3
3 10 MARK THE MOMENT 11.1% 8.97 6
4 7 SKY FOREVER 9.0% 11.10 5
5 1 ARMOUR EAGLE 8.5% 11.73 9
6 6 GOOD BUDDY 7.8% 12.90 2
7 8 VICTORY MOMENTS 7.2% 13.81 1
8 4 TORONADO PHANTOM 6.9% 14.48 4
9 11 MONTA FRUTTA 6.3% 15.99 11
10 12 SPORTS LEGEND 4.3% 23.40 7
11 9 CALIFORNIA TOUCH 4.1% 24.33 10
12 2 GOLDENFIELD 3.7% 26.82 12
BABY CRYSTALSMOKEY BEARMARK THE MOMENTSKY FOREVERARMOUR EAGLEGOOD BUDDYVICTORY MOMENTS — wonTORONADO PHANTOMMONTA FRUTTASPORTS LEGENDCALIFORNIA TOUCHGOLDENFIELD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 146.5

PLACE

3 24

6 50

8 42

QUINELLA

6,8 1,117

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 204

3,8 166.5

6,8 325

FORECAST

8,6 2,061

TIERCE

8,6,3 16,250

TRIO

3,6,8 2,574

FIRST 4

3,4,6,8 3,454

QUARTET

8,6,3,4 100,360

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

1/6 276.5

1/8 1,063.5