Sha Tin · 2024-02-18 · 07:37
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FAST BUCK, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with HINOKAMI KAGURA second and TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR third. The 3.7 favourite SPEEDY SMARTIE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FAST BUCK PC 1.08.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 7 | 7.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | HINOKAMI KAGURA B-/PC1/TT H Bentley · J Richards | H Bentley | J Richards | 11 | 66.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 9 | 22.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | MIRACLES B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 3 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | SPEEDY SMARTIE TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 8 | 3.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | COOL BLUE V/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 12 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 2 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | AFFIRM TT K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 5 | 6.6 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 6 | 24.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | DIAMOND FLARE B/TT2 L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 9.4 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | BEAT HOLLOW Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 4 | 5.3 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | LIFE IS GOOD H/P/XB/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 1 | 26.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | BEAT HOLLOW | 18.5% | 5.40 | 11 |
| 2 | 10 | AFFIRM | 17.1% | 5.86 | 8 |
| 3 | 7 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 13.5% | 7.40 | 7 |
| 4 | 6 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 12.9% | 7.75 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | COOL BLUE | 7.4% | 13.43 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | DIAMOND FLARE | 6.4% | 15.68 | 10 |
| 7 | 11 | MIRACLES | 6.3% | 15.80 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | LIFE IS GOOD | 5.9% | 17.05 | 12 |
| 9 | 2 | COLOURFUL PRINCE | 4.8% | 21.02 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR | 3.6% | 27.45 | 3 |
| 11 | 1 | FAST BUCK | 2.9% | 34.01 | 1 |
| 12 | 8 | HINOKAMI KAGURA | 0.7% | 150.75 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 75.5
PLACE
1 26
5 56.5
8 137.5
QUINELLA
1,8 1,967
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 209
1,8 546.5
5,8 1,089.5
FORECAST
1,8 3,913
TIERCE
1,8,5 44,922
TRIO
1,5,8 11,040
FIRST 4
1,5,8,11 32,199
QUARTET
1,8,5,11 475,350
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,12,13/1,5,8 1,216,958
5TH DOUBLE
12/1 410.5
12/8 539
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,7/4,12,13/Any Combination 100,375