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Sha Tin · 2024-02-18 · 07:37

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FAST BUCK, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with HINOKAMI KAGURA second and TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR third. The 3.7 favourite SPEEDY SMARTIE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.08.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 FAST BUCK PC 1.08.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 7 7.5 1/2
2 8 HINOKAMI KAGURA B-/PC1/TT H Bentley · J Richards 11 66.0 1/2
3 5 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT C L Chau · C S Shum 9 22.0 2-1/4
4 11 MIRACLES B M Chadwick · K L Man 3 16.0 3
5 6 SPEEDY SMARTIE TT Z Purton · T P Yung 8 3.7 3-1/2
6 9 COOL BLUE V/TT A Badel · F C Lor 12 10.0 3-1/2
7 7 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT K De Melo · W Y So 2 13.0 3-3/4
8 10 AFFIRM TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 5 6.6 6
9 2 COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 24.0 6
10 3 DIAMOND FLARE B/TT2 L Ferraris · M Newnham 10 9.4 6-1/2
11 12 BEAT HOLLOW Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 4 5.3 8-1/4
12 4 LIFE IS GOOD H/P/XB/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 1 26.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAST BUCK2. HINOKAMI KAGURA+0.5L3. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+2.25L4. MIRACLES+3L5. SPEEDY SMARTIE+3.5L6. COOL BLUE+3.5L7. STRIVE FOR GLORY+3.75L8. AFFIRM+6L9. COLOURFUL PRINCE+6L10. DIAMOND FLARE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEAT HOLLOW (18.5%) finished 11th — the winner FAST BUCK was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 BEAT HOLLOW 18.5% 5.40 11
2 10 AFFIRM 17.1% 5.86 8
3 7 STRIVE FOR GLORY 13.5% 7.40 7
4 6 SPEEDY SMARTIE 12.9% 7.75 5
5 9 COOL BLUE 7.4% 13.43 6
6 3 DIAMOND FLARE 6.4% 15.68 10
7 11 MIRACLES 6.3% 15.80 4
8 4 LIFE IS GOOD 5.9% 17.05 12
9 2 COLOURFUL PRINCE 4.8% 21.02 9
10 5 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 3.6% 27.45 3
11 1 FAST BUCK 2.9% 34.01 1
12 8 HINOKAMI KAGURA 0.7% 150.75 2
BEAT HOLLOWAFFIRMSTRIVE FOR GLORYSPEEDY SMARTIECOOL BLUEDIAMOND FLAREMIRACLESLIFE IS GOODCOLOURFUL PRINCETRIUMPHANT WARRIORFAST BUCK — wonHINOKAMI KAGURA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 75.5

PLACE

1 26

5 56.5

8 137.5

QUINELLA

1,8 1,967

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 209

1,8 546.5

5,8 1,089.5

FORECAST

1,8 3,913

TIERCE

1,8,5 44,922

TRIO

1,5,8 11,040

FIRST 4

1,5,8,11 32,199

QUARTET

1,8,5,11 475,350

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,12,13/1,5,8 1,216,958

5TH DOUBLE

12/1 410.5

12/8 539

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,7/4,12,13/Any Combination 100,375