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Sha Tin · 2024-02-18 · 06:03

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-18 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ONLY U, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by NOSE, with UNPRESUMING second and WINNING GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite CELTIC TIMES finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ONLY U Closed strongly CP/TT 1.22.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 8 21.0 NOSE
2 1 UNPRESUMING Closed strongly B A Hamelin · J Size 7 9.8 NOSE
3 12 WINNING GOLD Closed strongly H/TT K De Melo · W Y So 13 118.0 N
4 7 CELTIC TIMES B/TT Z Purton · W K Mo 10 2.8 3/4
5 9 ALL RICHES CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 4.8 1-1/4
6 4 SHOW RESPECT XB B Thompson · M Newnham 9 10.0 1-1/2
7 2 AMAZING RUN Led early CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 10.0 2-3/4
8 3 ROUND THE EARTH Closed strongly B- L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 38.0 3-3/4
9 11 FRUITY WARRIOR Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C Fownes 3 9.1 3-3/4
10 14 PODIUM Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 14 50.0 4-1/4
11 8 TRAVEL GOLF V-/TT B Avdulla · C H Yip 4 13.0 5
12 10 KINGLY DEMEANOR B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 77.0 5-1/4
13 5 COMPASSION SPIRIT B A Badel · K L Man 11 19.0 6-1/2
14 13 SUNNY SHINES B1 M F Poon · P C Ng 6 162.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ONLY U2. UNPRESUMING+0.05L3. WINNING GOLD+0.05L4. CELTIC TIMES+0.75L5. ALL RICHES+1.25L6. SHOW RESPECT+1.5L7. AMAZING RUN+2.75L8. ROUND THE EARTH+3.75L9. FRUITY WARRIOR+3.75L10. PODIUM+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CELTIC TIMES (16.4%) finished 4th — the winner ONLY U was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 CELTIC TIMES 16.4% 6.11 4
2 2 AMAZING RUN 14.5% 6.88 7
3 8 TRAVEL GOLF 11.8% 8.48 11
4 5 COMPASSION SPIRIT 10.8% 9.24 13
5 3 ROUND THE EARTH 8.2% 12.23 8
6 4 SHOW RESPECT 8.1% 12.37 6
7 1 UNPRESUMING 7.7% 12.92 2
8 11 FRUITY WARRIOR 6.8% 14.77 9
9 9 ALL RICHES 6.3% 15.90 5
10 14 PODIUM 3.2% 31.11 10
11 6 ONLY U 2.2% 44.65 1
12 12 WINNING GOLD 2.0% 50.98 3
13 10 KINGLY DEMEANOR 1.1% 94.96 12
14 13 SUNNY SHINES 1.0% 104.36 14
CELTIC TIMESAMAZING RUNTRAVEL GOLFCOMPASSION SPIRITROUND THE EARTHSHOW RESPECTUNPRESUMINGFRUITY WARRIORALL RICHESPODIUMONLY U — wonWINNING GOLDKINGLY DEMEANORSUNNY SHINES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 217

PLACE

1 33.5

6 49

12 262.5

QUINELLA

1,6 929

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 267

1,12 1,641.5

6,12 2,163

FORECAST

6,1 2,338

TIERCE

6,1,12 182,165

TRIO

1,6,12 21,537

FIRST 4

1,6,7,12 20,907

QUARTET

6,1,12,7 857,922

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 74

5/6 579