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Sha Tin · 2024-02-18 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ONLY U Closed strongly CP/TT 1.22.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 8 21.0 NOSE
2 0 UNPRESUMING Closed strongly B A Hamelin · J Size 7 9.8 NOSE
3 0 WINNING GOLD Closed strongly H/TT K De Melo · W Y So 13 118.0 N
4 0 CELTIC TIMES B/TT Z Purton · W K Mo 10 2.8 3/4
5 0 ALL RICHES CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 4.8 1-1/4
6 0 SHOW RESPECT XB B Thompson · M Newnham 9 10.0 1-1/2
7 0 AMAZING RUN Led early CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 10.0 2-3/4
8 0 ROUND THE EARTH Closed strongly B- L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 38.0 3-3/4
9 0 FRUITY WARRIOR Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C Fownes 3 9.1 3-3/4
10 0 PODIUM Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 14 50.0 4-1/4
11 0 TRAVEL GOLF V-/TT B Avdulla · C H Yip 4 13.0 5
12 0 KINGLY DEMEANOR B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 77.0 5-1/4
13 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT B A Badel · K L Man 11 19.0 6-1/2
14 0 SUNNY SHINES B1 M F Poon · P C Ng 6 162.0 7-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-18 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ONLY U, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by NOSE, with UNPRESUMING second and WINNING GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite CELTIC TIMES finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ONLY U—2. UNPRESUMING+0.05L3. WINNING GOLD+0.05L4. CELTIC TIMES+0.75L5. ALL RICHES+1.25L6. SHOW RESPECT+1.5L7. AMAZING RUN+2.75L8. ROUND THE EARTH+3.75L9. FRUITY WARRIOR+3.75L10. PODIUM+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CELTIC TIMES (16.4%) finished 4th — the winner ONLY U was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CELTIC TIMES 16.4% 6.11 4
2 0 AMAZING RUN 14.5% 6.88 7
3 0 TRAVEL GOLF 11.8% 8.48 11
4 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 10.8% 9.24 13
5 0 ROUND THE EARTH 8.2% 12.23 8
6 0 SHOW RESPECT 8.1% 12.37 6
7 0 UNPRESUMING 7.7% 12.92 2
8 0 FRUITY WARRIOR 6.8% 14.77 9
9 0 ALL RICHES 6.3% 15.90 5
10 0 PODIUM 3.2% 31.11 10
11 0 ONLY U 2.2% 44.65 1
12 0 WINNING GOLD 2.0% 50.98 3
13 0 KINGLY DEMEANOR 1.1% 94.96 12
14 0 SUNNY SHINES 1.0% 104.36 14
CELTIC TIMESAMAZING RUNTRAVEL GOLFCOMPASSION SPIRITROUND THE EARTHSHOW RESPECTUNPRESUMINGFRUITY WARRIORALL RICHESPODIUMONLY U — wonWINNING GOLDKINGLY DEMEANORSUNNY SHINES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 217

PLACE

1 33.5

6 49

12 262.5

QUINELLA

1,6 929

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 267

1,12 1,641.5

6,12 2,163

FORECAST

6,1 2,338

TIERCE

6,1,12 182,165

TRIO

1,6,12 21,537

FIRST 4

1,6,7,12 20,907

QUARTET

6,1,12,7 857,922

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 74

5/6 579