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Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 12:46

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DIVANO TT1 1.08.76 L Hewitson · K W Lui 12 21.0 1-1/4
2 0 HAPPY FOR ALL B/TT J McDonald · J Richards 7 7.0 1-1/4
3 0 GENEVA H Bowman · D J Hall 5 1.5 1-3/4
4 0 SUPER BONUS B/TT1 B Thompson · P C Ng 2 74.0 3-3/4
5 0 MUST GO E/PC/TT Z Purton · J Size 4 7.2 3-3/4
6 0 STRATHBARRY C L Chau · T P Yung 3 24.0 4
7 0 CIRCUIT TEN H/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 8 73.0 4
8 0 GO HERO TT1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 9 235.0 5-1/2
9 0 FUN N GLORY TT A Atzeni · W Y So 11 20.0 5-3/4
10 0 FAMILY FORTUNE TT B Shinn · C Fownes 13 136.0 5-3/4
11 0 IMPERIAL MAGEE SR/XB/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 6 44.0 6
12 0 ISLAND GOLDEN B1/TT K Teetan · K L Man 1 22.0 6-1/4
13 0 MASSIVE TALENT CP/TT B Avdulla · M Newnham 10 53.0 10
14 0 SPEED SWORD TT K De Melo · F C Lor 14 130.0 13-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DIVANO, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with HAPPY FOR ALL second and GENEVA third. The 1.5 favourite GENEVA finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIVANO—2. HAPPY FOR ALL+1.25L3. GENEVA+1.75L4. SUPER BONUS+3.75L5. MUST GO+3.75L6. STRATHBARRY+4L7. CIRCUIT TEN+4L8. GO HERO+5.5L9. FUN N GLORY+5.75L10. FAMILY FORTUNE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GENEVA (31.1%) finished 3rd — the winner DIVANO was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GENEVA 31.1% 3.22 3
2 0 MUST GO 19.3% 5.18 5
3 0 HAPPY FOR ALL 10.6% 9.44 2
4 0 ISLAND GOLDEN 8.2% 12.23 12
5 0 STRATHBARRY 6.2% 16.26 6
6 0 FUN N GLORY 5.7% 17.69 9
7 0 DIVANO 4.5% 22.07 1
8 0 IMPERIAL MAGEE 4.5% 22.27 11
9 0 MASSIVE TALENT 3.7% 26.78 13
10 0 CIRCUIT TEN 1.8% 56.05 7
11 0 FAMILY FORTUNE 1.5% 65.76 10
12 0 SPEED SWORD 1.1% 87.19 14
13 0 SUPER BONUS 1.1% 89.22 4
14 0 GO HERO 0.7% 145.93 8
GENEVAMUST GOHAPPY FOR ALLISLAND GOLDENSTRATHBARRYFUN N GLORYDIVANO — wonIMPERIAL MAGEEMASSIVE TALENTCIRCUIT TENFAMILY FORTUNESPEED SWORDSUPER BONUSGO HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.