Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 04:58
Race 1
Class 4
GOOD
1200m
Course A
14 runners
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DIVANO, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with HAPPY FOR ALL second and GENEVA third. The 1.5 favourite GENEVA finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | DIVANO TT1 1.08.76 L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 12 | 21.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | HAPPY FOR ALL B/TT J McDonald · J Richards | J McDonald | J Richards | 7 | 7.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | GENEVA H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 5 | 1.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | SUPER BONUS B/TT1 B Thompson · P C Ng | B Thompson | P C Ng | 2 | 74.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | MUST GO E/PC/TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 4 | 7.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | STRATHBARRY C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 24.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | CIRCUIT TEN H/TT M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 8 | 73.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 14 | GO HERO TT1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 235.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | FUN N GLORY TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 11 | 20.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | FAMILY FORTUNE TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 13 | 136.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | IMPERIAL MAGEE SR/XB/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 6 | 44.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 13 | ISLAND GOLDEN B1/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 1 | 22.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | MASSIVE TALENT CP/TT B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 10 | 53.0 | 10 |
| 14 | 1 | SPEED SWORD TT K De Melo · F C Lor | K De Melo | F C Lor | 14 | 130.0 | 13-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick GENEVA (31.1%) finished 3rd — the winner DIVANO was rated #7.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GENEVA | 31.1% | 3.22 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | MUST GO | 19.3% | 5.18 | 5 |
| 3 | 11 | HAPPY FOR ALL | 10.6% | 9.44 | 2 |
| 4 | 13 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 8.2% | 12.23 | 12 |
| 5 | 12 | STRATHBARRY | 6.2% | 16.26 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | FUN N GLORY | 5.7% | 17.69 | 9 |
| 7 | 7 | DIVANO | 4.5% | 22.07 | 1 |
| 8 | 6 | IMPERIAL MAGEE | 4.5% | 22.27 | 11 |
| 9 | 9 | MASSIVE TALENT | 3.7% | 26.78 | 13 |
| 10 | 4 | CIRCUIT TEN | 1.8% | 56.05 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | FAMILY FORTUNE | 1.5% | 65.76 | 10 |
| 12 | 1 | SPEED SWORD | 1.1% | 87.19 | 14 |
| 13 | 10 | SUPER BONUS | 1.1% | 89.22 | 4 |
| 14 | 14 | GO HERO | 0.7% | 145.93 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.