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Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 08:59

Race 8

Class 1 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FLYING ACE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by NOSE, with HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE second and INVINCIBLE SAGE third. The 3.4 favourite HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.07.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 FLYING ACE B 1.07.87 Z Purton · D J Hall 5 5.8 NOSE
2 2 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE B Avdulla · J Size 6 3.4 NOSE
3 8 INVINCIBLE SAGE B Shinn · D J Hall 4 6.9 N
4 7 PACKING TREADMILL SR L Hewitson · K W Lui 1 7.1 2-3/4
5 10 BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 2 9.7 3-1/4
6 5 ADIOS TT M F Poon · F C Lor 9 79.0 4
7 11 DROMBEG BANNER K Teetan · P C Ng 10 8.5 5-1/4
8 3 DUKE WAI P-/PC2 C L Chau · P C Ng 8 36.0 5-3/4
9 4 WHIZZ KID V/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 7 73.0 6-1/2
10 6 NERVOUS WITNESS H A Atzeni · D A Hayes 3 6.2 8-3/4
11 1 COURIER WONDER H-/XB H Bowman · M Newnham 11 42.0 19-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING ACE—2. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE+0.05L3. INVINCIBLE SAGE+0.05L4. PACKING TREADMILL+2.75L5. BEAUTY CHARGE+3.25L6. ADIOS+4L7. DROMBEG BANNER+5.25L8. DUKE WAI+5.75L9. WHIZZ KID+6.5L10. NERVOUS WITNESS+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FLYING ACE (16.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 FLYING ACE 16.6% 6.01 1
2 8 INVINCIBLE SAGE 14.1% 7.07 3
3 7 PACKING TREADMILL 11.7% 8.53 4
4 6 NERVOUS WITNESS 10.7% 9.37 10
5 10 BEAUTY CHARGE 9.8% 10.18 5
6 11 DROMBEG BANNER 9.8% 10.20 7
7 2 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 9.2% 10.91 2
8 4 WHIZZ KID 6.7% 14.92 9
9 5 ADIOS 4.2% 23.79 6
10 1 COURIER WONDER 4.1% 24.40 11
11 3 DUKE WAI 3.0% 32.91 8
FLYING ACE — wonINVINCIBLE SAGEPACKING TREADMILLNERVOUS WITNESSBEAUTY CHARGEDROMBEG BANNERHOWDEEPISYOURLOVEWHIZZ KIDADIOSCOURIER WONDERDUKE WAI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends recorded for this race.

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