Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 07:43
Race 6
Class 4
GOOD TO FIRM
1400m
Course A
14 runners
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LOYAL BO BO, ridden by H Bowman and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with ARIEL second and GOLDEN DARCI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LOYAL BO BO Closed strongly SR 1.21.52 H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 9 | 1.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | ARIEL Led early CP/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 8 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | GOLDEN DARCI Closed strongly P/XB J McDonald · D J Hall | J McDonald | D J Hall | 1 | 29.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | SKY TRUST H/B1/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 3 | 7.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 11 | SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly XB K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 7 | 17.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | LINK Closed strongly SR/XB B Avdulla · D J Whyte | B Avdulla | D J Whyte | 12 | 288.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | I CAN B/H/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 4 | 47.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | SPICY GOLD H1/TT1 L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 11 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 13 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP Closed strongly CP B Thompson · P F Yiu | B Thompson | P F Yiu | 10 | 246.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | TOP TOP TEA H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 14 | 78.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY B2/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 5 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | HOLY POWER Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 13 | 53.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | PODIUM B/TT K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 2 | 97.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 9 | DOUBLE WIN XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 17.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick LOYAL BO BO (21.2%) won this race.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LOYAL BO BO | 21.2% | 4.72 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | ARIEL | 15.1% | 6.61 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | GOLDEN DARCI | 13.6% | 7.35 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | SKY TRUST | 9.7% | 10.27 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 6.2% | 16.20 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 5.6% | 17.85 | 11 |
| 7 | 9 | DOUBLE WIN | 5.4% | 18.42 | 14 |
| 8 | 4 | HOLY POWER | 5.2% | 19.10 | 12 |
| 9 | 5 | I CAN | 5.1% | 19.54 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | SPICY GOLD | 4.8% | 20.87 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | TOP TOP TEA | 3.5% | 28.65 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | PODIUM | 2.8% | 35.96 | 13 |
| 13 | 13 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP | 1.3% | 77.40 | 9 |
| 14 | 7 | LINK | 0.4% | 235.25 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 5
Race 7 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m
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