Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 09:34
Race 9
Class 3
GOOD TO FIRM
1800m
Course A
13 runners
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. THE BEST PEACH, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with C P BRAVE second and HOLY LAKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite SWEET ENCOUNTER finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT 1.47.22 K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 10 | 7.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | C P BRAVE Closed strongly V J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 8 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | HOLY LAKE Closed strongly B/XB A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 6 | 6.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | FRANTANCK A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 13 | 6.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 40.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | PACKING HURRICANE Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 5 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | BRAVEHEARTS Closed strongly XB/TT B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 3 | 47.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | SWEET ENCOUNTER Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 12 | 5.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | BEAUTY LIVE TT B Avdulla · F C Lor | B Avdulla | F C Lor | 4 | 88.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | COLUMBUS COUNTY V-/B1/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 1 | 21.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 11 | 40.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | MAJESTIC VICTORY Led early TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 9 | 18.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 13 | ENIGMA TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 10.0 | 17-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick PACKING HURRICANE (18.2%) finished 6th — the winner THE BEST PEACH was rated #6.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PACKING HURRICANE | 18.2% | 5.51 | 6 |
| 2 | 4 | SWEET ENCOUNTER | 13.0% | 7.70 | 8 |
| 3 | 9 | FRANTANCK | 13.0% | 7.70 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | C P BRAVE | 11.4% | 8.75 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | HOLY LAKE | 9.0% | 11.09 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | THE BEST PEACH | 8.9% | 11.23 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | NATURAL STORM | 5.3% | 18.89 | 11 |
| 8 | 6 | COLUMBUS COUNTY | 4.8% | 20.75 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 | MAJESTIC VICTORY | 4.8% | 20.97 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 4.1% | 24.15 | 5 |
| 11 | 13 | ENIGMA | 4.0% | 25.08 | 13 |
| 12 | 7 | BEAUTY LIVE | 2.1% | 47.01 | 9 |
| 13 | 8 | BRAVEHEARTS | 1.4% | 72.19 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 8
Race 10 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1800m
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