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Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 17:33

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.47.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT 1.47.22 K Teetan · A S Cruz 10 7.7 1-1/4
2 0 C P BRAVE Closed strongly V J McDonald · P F Yiu 8 5.5 1-1/4
3 0 HOLY LAKE Closed strongly B/XB A Atzeni · K W Lui 6 6.0 1-1/2
4 0 FRANTANCK A Badel · P C Ng 13 6.4 2-1/2
5 0 NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 2 40.0 4-1/4
6 0 PACKING HURRICANE Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 5 10.0 5
7 0 BRAVEHEARTS Closed strongly XB/TT B Thompson · J Richards 3 47.0 5-1/2
8 0 SWEET ENCOUNTER Z Purton · J Size 12 5.0 5-3/4
9 0 BEAUTY LIVE TT B Avdulla · F C Lor 4 88.0 5-3/4
10 0 COLUMBUS COUNTY V-/B1/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 1 21.0 5-3/4
11 0 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 11 40.0 5-3/4
12 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY Led early TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 9 18.0 7
13 0 ENIGMA TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 10.0 17-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. THE BEST PEACH, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with C P BRAVE second and HOLY LAKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite SWEET ENCOUNTER finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE BEST PEACH—2. C P BRAVE+1.25L3. HOLY LAKE+1.5L4. FRANTANCK+2.5L5. NICHOLSON RETURNS+4.25L6. PACKING HURRICANE+5L7. BRAVEHEARTS+5.5L8. SWEET ENCOUNTER+5.75L9. BEAUTY LIVE+5.75L10. COLUMBUS COUNTY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PACKING HURRICANE (18.2%) finished 6th — the winner THE BEST PEACH was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PACKING HURRICANE 18.2% 5.51 6
2 0 SWEET ENCOUNTER 13.0% 7.70 8
3 0 FRANTANCK 13.0% 7.70 4
4 0 C P BRAVE 11.4% 8.75 2
5 0 HOLY LAKE 9.0% 11.09 3
6 0 THE BEST PEACH 8.9% 11.23 1
7 0 NATURAL STORM 5.3% 18.89 11
8 0 COLUMBUS COUNTY 4.8% 20.75 10
9 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY 4.8% 20.97 12
10 0 NICHOLSON RETURNS 4.1% 24.15 5
11 0 ENIGMA 4.0% 25.08 13
12 0 BEAUTY LIVE 2.1% 47.01 9
13 0 BRAVEHEARTS 1.4% 72.19 7
PACKING HURRICANESWEET ENCOUNTERFRANTANCKC P BRAVEHOLY LAKETHE BEST PEACH — wonNATURAL STORMCOLUMBUS COUNTYMAJESTIC VICTORYNICHOLSON RETURNSENIGMABEAUTY LIVEBRAVEHEARTS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.