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Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 05:17

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SECOND TO NONE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with AFFIRM second and WINNING GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite SKY HEART finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SECOND TO NONE Closed strongly 1.21.92 L Hewitson · K W Lui 1 5.5 N
2 14 AFFIRM Led early TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 5 4.4 N
3 11 WINNING GOLD Closed strongly H/TT K De Melo · W Y So 11 12.0 1
4 3 WAR OF COURAGE B K H Chan · K L Man 4 14.0 2
5 9 LUCKY FIONN Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · J Richards 7 14.0 2-1/4
6 1 SKY HEART TT B Shinn · C Fownes 12 4.0 2-1/4
7 5 SOARING BRONCO H Bentley · P C Ng 2 13.0 2-1/2
8 7 TRAVEL GOLF Closed strongly TT- M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 40.0 3
9 6 FIGHT TIME Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall 6 78.0 3-1/2
10 4 GOOD GOOD Closed strongly B1 R Moore · J Size 13 6.6 3-3/4
11 8 CHATER GOLD Closed strongly CP A Badel · D A Hayes 8 67.0 4
12 10 TOP PEAK TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 9 63.0 4
13 13 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo 14 25.0 5-3/4
14 12 KINGLY DEMEANOR B/TT B Thompson · A S Cruz 3 202.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SECOND TO NONE—2. AFFIRM+0.05L3. WINNING GOLD+1L4. WAR OF COURAGE+2L5. LUCKY FIONN+2.25L6. SKY HEART+2.25L7. SOARING BRONCO+2.5L8. TRAVEL GOLF+3L9. FIGHT TIME+3.5L10. GOOD GOOD+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SECOND TO NONE (16.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SECOND TO NONE 16.0% 6.24 1
2 4 GOOD GOOD 14.1% 7.08 10
3 1 SKY HEART 13.9% 7.20 6
4 5 SOARING BRONCO 8.7% 11.53 7
5 14 AFFIRM 8.0% 12.54 2
6 3 WAR OF COURAGE 6.5% 15.44 4
7 13 CIRCUIT NINE 6.5% 15.48 13
8 8 CHATER GOLD 5.7% 17.67 11
9 9 LUCKY FIONN 5.1% 19.61 5
10 7 TRAVEL GOLF 4.0% 25.04 8
11 6 FIGHT TIME 3.9% 25.42 9
12 10 TOP PEAK 3.7% 26.85 12
13 11 WINNING GOLD 3.2% 30.78 3
14 12 KINGLY DEMEANOR 0.7% 142.37 14
SECOND TO NONE — wonGOOD GOODSKY HEARTSOARING BRONCOAFFIRMWAR OF COURAGECIRCUIT NINECHATER GOLDLUCKY FIONNTRAVEL GOLFFIGHT TIMETOP PEAKWINNING GOLDKINGLY DEMEANOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends recorded for this race.

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