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Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 13:16

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SECOND TO NONE Closed strongly 1.21.92 L Hewitson · K W Lui 1 5.5 N
2 0 AFFIRM Led early TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 5 4.4 N
3 0 WINNING GOLD Closed strongly H/TT K De Melo · W Y So 11 12.0 1
4 0 WAR OF COURAGE B K H Chan · K L Man 4 14.0 2
5 0 LUCKY FIONN Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · J Richards 7 14.0 2-1/4
6 0 SKY HEART TT B Shinn · C Fownes 12 4.0 2-1/4
7 0 SOARING BRONCO H Bentley · P C Ng 2 13.0 2-1/2
8 0 TRAVEL GOLF Closed strongly TT- M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 40.0 3
9 0 FIGHT TIME Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall 6 78.0 3-1/2
10 0 GOOD GOOD Closed strongly B1 R Moore · J Size 13 6.6 3-3/4
11 0 CHATER GOLD Closed strongly CP A Badel · D A Hayes 8 67.0 4
12 0 TOP PEAK TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 9 63.0 4
13 0 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo 14 25.0 5-3/4
14 0 KINGLY DEMEANOR B/TT B Thompson · A S Cruz 3 202.0 6-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SECOND TO NONE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with AFFIRM second and WINNING GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite SKY HEART finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SECOND TO NONE—2. AFFIRM+0.05L3. WINNING GOLD+1L4. WAR OF COURAGE+2L5. LUCKY FIONN+2.25L6. SKY HEART+2.25L7. SOARING BRONCO+2.5L8. TRAVEL GOLF+3L9. FIGHT TIME+3.5L10. GOOD GOOD+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SECOND TO NONE (16.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SECOND TO NONE 16.0% 6.24 1
2 0 GOOD GOOD 14.1% 7.08 10
3 0 SKY HEART 13.9% 7.20 6
4 0 SOARING BRONCO 8.7% 11.53 7
5 0 AFFIRM 8.0% 12.54 2
6 0 WAR OF COURAGE 6.5% 15.44 4
7 0 CIRCUIT NINE 6.5% 15.48 13
8 0 CHATER GOLD 5.7% 17.67 11
9 0 LUCKY FIONN 5.1% 19.61 5
10 0 TRAVEL GOLF 4.0% 25.04 8
11 0 FIGHT TIME 3.9% 25.42 9
12 0 TOP PEAK 3.7% 26.85 12
13 0 WINNING GOLD 3.2% 30.78 3
14 0 KINGLY DEMEANOR 0.7% 142.37 14
SECOND TO NONE — wonGOOD GOODSKY HEARTSOARING BRONCOAFFIRMWAR OF COURAGECIRCUIT NINECHATER GOLDLUCKY FIONNTRAVEL GOLFFIGHT TIMETOP PEAKWINNING GOLDKINGLY DEMEANOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.