Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 06:21
Race 4
Class 4
GOOD TO FIRM
1600m
Course A
14 runners
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CALIFORNIATOTALITY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with MARADO second and JOYFUL PROSPERITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY Closed strongly B2/TT 1.34.28 B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 3 | 3.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | MARADO Closed strongly B- C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 8 | 76.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 13 | 5.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 6 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 13 | ROYAL PRIDE H-/TT B Thompson · C Fownes | B Thompson | C Fownes | 7 | 57.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | CELTIC TIMES Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 10 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | MISTER DAPPER Closed strongly H/SR/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 12 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE B/XB/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 2 | 54.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 14 | 5.6 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | CHATEAU LE PECHE B M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 5 | 45.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | BEER PALACE B L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 5.2 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | C P ONE TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 11 | 227.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | LOOKING COOL CP A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 4 | 53.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | ROBOT FIGHTER Led early K De Melo · K L Man | K De Melo | K L Man | 9 | 137.0 | 13-3/4 |
| — | 0 | ROUND THE EARTH A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick MISTER DAPPER (14.9%) finished 7th — the winner CALIFORNIATOTALITY was rated #3.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MISTER DAPPER | 14.9% | 6.73 | 7 |
| 2 | 5 | VOLCANIC SPARK | 14.2% | 7.05 | 9 |
| 3 | 12 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY | 12.9% | 7.75 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | BEER PALACE | 12.0% | 8.34 | 11 |
| 5 | 11 | STARSHIP EIGHTY | 10.9% | 9.19 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | CELTIC TIMES | 9.8% | 10.20 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY | 7.8% | 12.82 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | LOOKING COOL | 6.1% | 16.41 | 13 |
| 9 | 3 | ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE | 3.3% | 30.37 | 8 |
| 10 | 13 | ROYAL PRIDE | 3.0% | 33.44 | 5 |
| 11 | 1 | MARADO | 1.7% | 58.19 | 2 |
| 12 | 8 | CHATEAU LE PECHE | 1.7% | 58.96 | 10 |
| 13 | 14 | ROBOT FIGHTER | 1.3% | 78.68 | 14 |
| 14 | 6 | C P ONE | 0.5% | 194.20 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 3
Race 5 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m
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