Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 10:09
Race 10
Class 3
GOOD TO FIRM
1400m
Course A
14 runners
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PATCH OF THETA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with GREEN N WHITE second and MAGNIFICENT NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | PATCH OF THETA Closed strongly H/XB 1.21.57 K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 3 | 2.5 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | GREEN N WHITE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 9 | 8.6 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | MAGNIFICENT NINE Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 11 | 9.2 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | SUNSTRIDER Closed strongly CP B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 1 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | RIGHTEOUS ARION Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 8 | 41.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | FUN TOGETHER CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 10 | 25.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · W Y So | H Bowman | W Y So | 14 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | SINBA B/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz | J McDonald | A S Cruz | 2 | 8.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | KYEEMA B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 5 | 186.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 13 | SAKEWIN Led early M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 13 | 151.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | AEROINVINCIBLE SR A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 7 | 4.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 12 | 134.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 10 | GOOD LUCK WIN B/TT A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 4 | 203.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 14 | 9 | BIG RED XB- L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 6 | 44.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick AEROINVINCIBLE (23.5%) finished 11th — the winner PATCH OF THETA was rated #2.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | AEROINVINCIBLE | 23.5% | 4.25 | 11 |
| 2 | 8 | PATCH OF THETA | 22.3% | 4.49 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | GREEN N WHITE | 12.7% | 7.90 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | MAGNIFICENT NINE | 10.8% | 9.28 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | SINBA | 6.0% | 16.80 | 8 |
| 6 | 3 | FUN TOGETHER | 5.2% | 19.35 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | AMAZING VICTORY | 4.7% | 21.29 | 7 |
| 8 | 12 | RIGHTEOUS ARION | 3.9% | 25.83 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | BIG RED | 3.7% | 26.96 | 14 |
| 10 | 6 | SUNSTRIDER | 3.1% | 32.02 | 4 |
| 11 | 7 | SMILING TIME | 2.1% | 47.64 | 12 |
| 12 | 13 | SAKEWIN | 1.1% | 95.13 | 10 |
| 13 | 11 | KYEEMA | 0.6% | 166.65 | 9 |
| 14 | 10 | GOOD LUCK WIN | 0.5% | 187.18 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.