Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 08:19
Race 7
4YO
GOOD TO FIRM
2000m
Course A
14 runners
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was 4YO over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MASSIVE SOVEREIGN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with GALAXY PATCH second and KA YING GENERATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite HELIOS EXPRESS finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | MASSIVE SOVEREIGN Closed strongly 1.59.85 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 10 | 4.4 | N |
| 2 | 1 | GALAXY PATCH Closed strongly B Shinn · P C Ng | B Shinn | P C Ng | 14 | 7.2 | N |
| 3 | 11 | KA YING GENERATION Led early PC A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 4 | 40.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 3 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | UNBELIEVABLE Closed strongly H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 8 | 58.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | CHANCHENG GLORY B/XB W Buick · K W Lui | W Buick | K W Lui | 9 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 7 | 66.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | HELIOS EXPRESS Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 13 | 3.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | HELENE FEELING B-/CP2/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 11 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | STAR MAC B K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 1 | 23.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | ELLIPTICAL B/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 2 | 239.0 | 15-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | ENSUED R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 12 | 6.8 | 16-1/2 |
| 13 | 13 | SIMPLE HEDGE V-/PC1 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 6 | 52.0 | 19-1/4 |
| 14 | 8 | BEAUTY CRESCENT TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 5 | 43.0 | 22-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick HELIOS EXPRESS (29.5%) finished 8th — the winner MASSIVE SOVEREIGN was rated #2.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HELIOS EXPRESS | 29.5% | 3.38 | 8 |
| 2 | 7 | MASSIVE SOVEREIGN | 18.2% | 5.50 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | ENSUED | 10.7% | 9.37 | 12 |
| 4 | 1 | GALAXY PATCH | 9.3% | 10.73 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | HELENE FEELING | 7.8% | 12.80 | 9 |
| 6 | 4 | CHILL CHIBI | 4.5% | 22.03 | 4 |
| 7 | 13 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 4.3% | 23.47 | 13 |
| 8 | 14 | STAR MAC | 4.1% | 24.61 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | CHANCHENG GLORY | 3.7% | 26.98 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | BEAUTY CRESCENT | 2.8% | 36.31 | 14 |
| 11 | 9 | SPEED DRAGON | 2.2% | 46.39 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | KA YING GENERATION | 1.5% | 66.39 | 3 |
| 13 | 10 | UNBELIEVABLE | 0.8% | 120.89 | 5 |
| 14 | 12 | ELLIPTICAL | 0.6% | 156.03 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 6
Race 8 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 2000m
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