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Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 16:18

Race 7

4YO GOOD TO FIRM 2000m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.59.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MASSIVE SOVEREIGN Closed strongly 1.59.85 Z Purton · C H Yip 10 4.4 N
2 0 GALAXY PATCH Closed strongly B Shinn · P C Ng 14 7.2 N
3 0 KA YING GENERATION Led early PC A Atzeni · P C Ng 4 40.0 3/4
4 0 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 3 11.0 3
5 0 UNBELIEVABLE Closed strongly H Bentley · F C Lor 8 58.0 4
6 0 CHANCHENG GLORY B/XB W Buick · K W Lui 9 11.0 4-1/2
7 0 SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 66.0 4-1/2
8 0 HELIOS EXPRESS Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size 13 3.2 4-1/2
9 0 HELENE FEELING B-/CP2/TT J McDonald · C S Shum 11 13.0 4-3/4
10 0 STAR MAC B K Teetan · D A Hayes 1 23.0 9
11 0 ELLIPTICAL B/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 2 239.0 15-3/4
12 0 ENSUED R Moore · J Size 12 6.8 16-1/2
13 0 SIMPLE HEDGE V-/PC1 A Hamelin · J Size 6 52.0 19-1/4
14 0 BEAUTY CRESCENT TT A Badel · A S Cruz 5 43.0 22-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was 4YO over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MASSIVE SOVEREIGN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with GALAXY PATCH second and KA YING GENERATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite HELIOS EXPRESS finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASSIVE SOVEREIGN—2. GALAXY PATCH+0.05L3. KA YING GENERATION+0.75L4. CHILL CHIBI+3L5. UNBELIEVABLE+4L6. CHANCHENG GLORY+4.5L7. SPEED DRAGON+4.5L8. HELIOS EXPRESS+4.5L9. HELENE FEELING+4.75L10. STAR MAC+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HELIOS EXPRESS (29.5%) finished 8th — the winner MASSIVE SOVEREIGN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HELIOS EXPRESS 29.5% 3.38 8
2 0 MASSIVE SOVEREIGN 18.2% 5.50 1
3 0 ENSUED 10.7% 9.37 12
4 0 GALAXY PATCH 9.3% 10.73 2
5 0 HELENE FEELING 7.8% 12.80 9
6 0 CHILL CHIBI 4.5% 22.03 4
7 0 SIMPLE HEDGE 4.3% 23.47 13
8 0 STAR MAC 4.1% 24.61 10
9 0 CHANCHENG GLORY 3.7% 26.98 6
10 0 BEAUTY CRESCENT 2.8% 36.31 14
11 0 SPEED DRAGON 2.2% 46.39 7
12 0 KA YING GENERATION 1.5% 66.39 3
13 0 UNBELIEVABLE 0.8% 120.89 5
14 0 ELLIPTICAL 0.6% 156.03 11
HELIOS EXPRESSMASSIVE SOVEREIGN — wonENSUEDGALAXY PATCHHELENE FEELINGCHILL CHIBISIMPLE HEDGESTAR MACCHANCHENG GLORYBEAUTY CRESCENTSPEED DRAGONKA YING GENERATIONUNBELIEVABLEELLIPTICAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.