Sha Tin · 2024-03-24 · 05:49
Race 3
Class 4
GOOD
1200m
Course A
14 runners
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LIFELINE EXPRESS, ridden by R Moore and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with FULL CREDIT second and LUCKY TOUCH third. The 3.2 favourite LUCKY TOUCH finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LIFELINE EXPRESS 1.09.04 R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 7 | 4.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | FULL CREDIT L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 9 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | LUCKY TOUCH B1/TT1 Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 10 | 3.2 | 2 |
| 4 | 13 | LUCKY PLANET B/TT1 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 11 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | CHAMPION METHOD B/TT E C W Wong · C S Shum | E C W Wong | C S Shum | 6 | 5.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | AMAZING RUN CP J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 14 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | MARIO B B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 5 | 289.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | VULCANUS CP C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 228.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | LESS IS MORE H-/TT H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 2 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | ALWAYS FLUKE CP/H W Buick · K W Lui | W Buick | K W Lui | 3 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | FAST AS ROCKET TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 4 | 151.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | SILVER SPURS SR1/TT1 B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 13 | 102.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 14 | GANGNAM STAR P1/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 12 | 47.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 11 | TELECOM BULLET TT1 B Thompson · Y S Tsui | B Thompson | Y S Tsui | 8 | 325.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick LESS IS MORE (21.1%) finished 9th — the winner LIFELINE EXPRESS was rated #5.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LESS IS MORE | 21.1% | 4.73 | 9 |
| 2 | 7 | LUCKY TOUCH | 16.0% | 6.27 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | AMAZING RUN | 15.7% | 6.35 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | ALWAYS FLUKE | 9.1% | 10.95 | 10 |
| 5 | 6 | LIFELINE EXPRESS | 8.2% | 12.19 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | SILVER SPURS | 6.2% | 16.13 | 12 |
| 7 | 1 | CHAMPION METHOD | 5.7% | 17.50 | 5 |
| 8 | 13 | LUCKY PLANET | 5.6% | 18.00 | 4 |
| 9 | 14 | GANGNAM STAR | 5.0% | 19.98 | 13 |
| 10 | 5 | FULL CREDIT | 4.3% | 23.41 | 2 |
| 11 | 4 | FAST AS ROCKET | 1.3% | 75.00 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | MARIO | 0.7% | 138.53 | 7 |
| 13 | 9 | VULCANUS | 0.7% | 145.60 | 8 |
| 14 | 11 | TELECOM BULLET | 0.4% | 276.63 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 2
Race 4 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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