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Sha Tin · 2024-04-20 · 10:04

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-20 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SKY HEART, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with CHIU CHOW SPIRIT second and PATCH OF THETA third. The winner led throughout. The 1.9 favourite PATCH OF THETA finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 SKY HEART Wire to wire B1/TT 1.22.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · C Fownes 11 12.0 1-1/4
2 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K L Man 9 29.0 1-1/4
3 3 PATCH OF THETA Closed strongly H/XB H Bowman · K W Lui 5 1.9 2
4 10 STELLAR SWIFT TT H Bentley · D A Hayes 1 24.0 2-1/4
5 6 AMAZING DUCK CP M F Poon · K H Ting 12 30.0 2-1/4
6 4 MAGNIFICENT NINE Closed strongly B1 Z Purton · J Size 3 3.7 2-1/2
7 11 BEAUTY MISSILE Closed strongly PC K Teetan · F C Lor 14 13.0 2-3/4
8 13 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly CP K De Melo · D J Hall 4 23.0 3-1/4
9 12 CITY THUNDER Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · W Y So 2 51.0 5-3/4
10 2 FUN TOGETHER CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 10 18.0 6-1/2
11 9 SMART CITY A Hamelin · P F Yiu 6 91.0 7-3/4
12 8 SATIRICAL FAN B- K C Leung · C S Shum 8 217.0 10-1/2
13 5 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 54.0 12-1/2
14 7 ORIENTAL TYCOON Y L Chung · P C Ng 13 78.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY HEART2. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+1.25L3. PATCH OF THETA+2L4. STELLAR SWIFT+2.25L5. AMAZING DUCK+2.25L6. MAGNIFICENT NINE+2.5L7. BEAUTY MISSILE+2.75L8. LET'S DO IT+3.25L9. CITY THUNDER+5.75L10. FUN TOGETHER+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PATCH OF THETA (33.3%) finished 3rd — the winner SKY HEART was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 PATCH OF THETA 33.3% 3.01 3
2 4 MAGNIFICENT NINE 23.7% 4.21 6
3 14 SKY HEART 7.4% 13.46 1
4 11 BEAUTY MISSILE 6.8% 14.75 7
5 2 FUN TOGETHER 4.5% 22.00 10
6 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 4.1% 24.37 2
7 6 AMAZING DUCK 3.6% 27.57 5
8 7 ORIENTAL TYCOON 3.4% 29.63 14
9 5 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 3.3% 29.93 13
10 10 STELLAR SWIFT 3.3% 30.01 4
11 13 LET'S DO IT 2.8% 35.42 8
12 9 SMART CITY 2.2% 45.44 11
13 12 CITY THUNDER 1.0% 103.61 9
14 8 SATIRICAL FAN 0.5% 202.70 12
PATCH OF THETAMAGNIFICENT NINESKY HEART — wonBEAUTY MISSILEFUN TOGETHERCHIU CHOW SPIRITAMAZING DUCKORIENTAL TYCOONVIVA GRACIOUSNESSSTELLAR SWIFTLET'S DO ITSMART CITYCITY THUNDERSATIRICAL FAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 120

PLACE

1 57

3 10.1

14 29

QUINELLA

1,14 1,102.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 113.5

1,14 263

3,14 40

FORECAST

14,1 1,732

TIERCE

14,1,3 5,728

TRIO

1,3,14 788

FIRST 4

1,3,10,14 2,961

QUARTET

14,1,3,10 107,844

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

4/7/1 2,377

4/7/14 11,203

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,8/1,3,14 375,147

9TH DOUBLE

7/1 377

7/14 936

SIX UP

1,10/8,11/10,11/4,6/7,8/1,14 401,880

7 [C Fownes]

10 [A Badel]