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Sha Tin · 2024-04-20 · 05:02

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-20 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CHARMING STEED, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/2, with EAGLE RUN second and ASIAN ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 CHARMING STEED Closed strongly E-/V-/XB-/TT 1.39.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 4.2 2-1/2
2 13 EAGLE RUN TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 12.0 2-1/2
3 7 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly V-/XB/PC2/TT H Bowman · J Richards 2 6.1 3-3/4
4 14 GREEN LASER Closed strongly PC/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 1 18.0 5-1/4
5 6 M M NEBULA Closed strongly PC/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng 13 11.0 5-1/4
6 9 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly P/TT M F Poon · C W Chang 10 27.0 7
7 8 SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip 14 9.9 8
8 1 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB Z Purton · J Size 3 5.6 8
9 12 ALL IS READY B/XB/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham 12 36.0 8-1/2
10 4 COOL BLUE V-/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 6 8.1 12-3/4
11 5 FORTUNE PRESIDENT Closed strongly B Avdulla · Y S Tsui 8 38.0 13-3/4
12 11 CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 11 14.0 14-1/2
13 3 V LOVE YOU Led early B1/TT B Thompson · C S Shum 9 58.0 17-3/4
14 2 ROBOT FIGHTER K De Melo · K L Man 5 92.0 25-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARMING STEED2. EAGLE RUN+2.5L3. ASIAN ONE+3.75L4. GREEN LASER+5.25L5. M M NEBULA+5.25L6. CASA LEGEND+7L7. SUPERB MOVE+8L8. NOBLE WIN+8L9. ALL IS READY+8.5L10. COOL BLUE+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick NOBLE WIN (24.3%) finished 8th — the winner CHARMING STEED was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 NOBLE WIN 24.3% 4.11 8
2 4 COOL BLUE 13.9% 7.19 10
3 7 ASIAN ONE 11.1% 8.98 3
4 10 CHARMING STEED 10.2% 9.81 1
5 6 M M NEBULA 7.7% 13.00 5
6 13 EAGLE RUN 6.2% 16.18 2
7 8 SUPERB MOVE 5.6% 17.96 7
8 11 CHIRON 4.7% 21.42 12
9 9 CASA LEGEND 4.0% 25.02 6
10 12 ALL IS READY 3.6% 27.60 9
11 14 GREEN LASER 3.5% 28.66 4
12 5 FORTUNE PRESIDENT 2.9% 34.92 11
13 2 ROBOT FIGHTER 1.3% 79.12 14
14 3 V LOVE YOU 1.1% 90.71 13
NOBLE WINCOOL BLUEASIAN ONECHARMING STEED — wonM M NEBULAEAGLE RUNSUPERB MOVECHIRONCASA LEGENDALL IS READYGREEN LASERFORTUNE PRESIDENTROBOT FIGHTERV LOVE YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 42

PLACE

7 20.5

10 15.5

13 39

QUINELLA

10,13 250

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 45

7,13 141

10,13 98.5

FORECAST

10,13 442

TIERCE

10,13,7 2,501

TRIO

7,10,13 513

FIRST 4

7,10,13,14 1,498

QUARTET

10,13,7,14 26,757