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Sha Tin · 2024-04-20 · 09:29

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-20 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. C P BRAVE, ridden by A Badel and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/2, with NATURAL STORM second and FLAMING RABBIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite CHILL CHIBI finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.47.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 C P BRAVE Closed strongly V 1.47.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P F Yiu 3 7.7 1-1/2
2 8 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 1 25.0 1-1/2
3 2 FLAMING RABBIT Led early SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 11.0 1-3/4
4 6 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 5 3.0 1-3/4
5 12 SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 7.0 2-1/4
6 5 THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 2 7.4 2-1/4
7 10 ALACRITY XB/CP2/TT H Bentley · J Richards 7 45.0 2-3/4
8 13 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 12 24.0 3
9 11 PACKING HURRICANE B/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 4 17.0 3-1/4
10 3 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 13 49.0 5-1/4
11 9 SWEET ENCOUNTER Z Purton · J Size 10 8.9 5-3/4
12 4 LA CITY BLANCHE TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 6 14.0 6-1/2
13 1 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B Y L Chung · F C Lor 11 40.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. C P BRAVE2. NATURAL STORM+1.5L3. FLAMING RABBIT+1.75L4. CHILL CHIBI+1.75L5. SPEED DRAGON+2.25L6. THE BEST PEACH+2.25L7. ALACRITY+2.75L8. TURIN MASCOT+3L9. PACKING HURRICANE+3.25L10. RUNNING GLORY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CHILL CHIBI (17.4%) finished 4th — the winner C P BRAVE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 CHILL CHIBI 17.4% 5.73 4
2 9 SWEET ENCOUNTER 12.2% 8.21 11
3 7 C P BRAVE 12.0% 8.30 1
4 2 FLAMING RABBIT 11.0% 9.09 3
5 5 THE BEST PEACH 8.7% 11.44 6
6 4 LA CITY BLANCHE 6.7% 14.95 12
7 11 PACKING HURRICANE 6.3% 15.80 9
8 13 TURIN MASCOT 6.2% 16.05 8
9 12 SPEED DRAGON 4.7% 21.21 5
10 10 ALACRITY 4.4% 22.72 7
11 1 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 4.3% 23.26 13
12 8 NATURAL STORM 3.6% 27.43 2
13 3 RUNNING GLORY 2.3% 43.87 10
CHILL CHIBISWEET ENCOUNTERC P BRAVE — wonFLAMING RABBITTHE BEST PEACHLA CITY BLANCHEPACKING HURRICANETURIN MASCOTSPEED DRAGONALACRITYALL FOR ST PAUL'SNATURAL STORMRUNNING GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 77

PLACE

2 41.5

7 25.5

8 64

QUINELLA

7,8 976

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 136

2,8 516.5

7,8 269.5

FORECAST

7,8 1,632

TIERCE

7,8,2 19,157

TRIO

2,7,8 4,346

FIRST 4

2,6,7,8 2,355

QUARTET

7,8,2,6 66,550

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

4/7 1,310.5

4/8 606.5