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Sha Tin · 2024-04-20 · 06:34

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-20 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. MULTISUPER, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with RED ELEGANCE second and PRINCE OF PORTY third. The 4.5 favourite PRINCE OF PORTY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.55.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MULTISUPER B/TT 0.55.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · P F Yiu 11 7.7 3/4
2 5 RED ELEGANCE B M Chadwick · D J Whyte 8 6.6 3/4
3 1 PRINCE OF PORTY CP/TT H Bowman · D J Hall 4 4.5 2-1/4
4 3 CHATEAUNEUF TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 4.5 2-3/4
5 2 SUPER COMMANDER V2/TT2 E C W Wong · C H Yip 14 11.0 3-1/4
6 13 PROSECCO SR/V/TT K Teetan · W Y So 2 8.8 3-1/4
7 7 CURRAHEE H1/TT1 L Ferraris · W K Mo 7 83.0 3-1/2
8 8 DRACO TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 30.0 3-3/4
9 9 FLYING PHANTOM H B Avdulla · J Size 9 8.3 5
10 14 FANCY STAR P-/PC1/TT A Badel · C Fownes 13 136.0 5-1/4
11 10 JOLLY COMPANION CP/TT H Bentley · K L Man 5 103.0 5-1/4
12 11 SUPER TEN XB-/B/TT2 M L Yeung · C W Chang 1 102.0 6
13 12 GIMME FIVE CP1 K C Leung · F C Lor 12 16.0 8-3/4
14 4 THE GREAT MASTER TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 10 25.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MULTISUPER2. RED ELEGANCE+0.75L3. PRINCE OF PORTY+2.25L4. CHATEAUNEUF+2.75L5. SUPER COMMANDER+3.25L6. PROSECCO+3.25L7. CURRAHEE+3.5L8. DRACO+3.75L9. FLYING PHANTOM+5L10. FANCY STAR+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CHATEAUNEUF (33.0%) finished 4th — the winner MULTISUPER was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 CHATEAUNEUF 33.0% 3.03 4
2 13 PROSECCO 19.8% 5.04 6
3 1 PRINCE OF PORTY 9.2% 10.88 3
4 9 FLYING PHANTOM 6.2% 16.15 9
5 8 DRACO 6.2% 16.16 8
6 5 RED ELEGANCE 5.8% 17.31 2
7 2 SUPER COMMANDER 3.8% 25.99 5
8 6 MULTISUPER 3.6% 28.15 1
9 10 JOLLY COMPANION 3.5% 28.78 11
10 4 THE GREAT MASTER 3.4% 29.40 14
11 12 GIMME FIVE 2.4% 41.78 13
12 7 CURRAHEE 1.8% 55.70 7
13 11 SUPER TEN 0.7% 142.72 12
14 14 FANCY STAR 0.6% 159.24 10
CHATEAUNEUFPROSECCOPRINCE OF PORTYFLYING PHANTOMDRACORED ELEGANCESUPER COMMANDERMULTISUPER — wonJOLLY COMPANIONTHE GREAT MASTERGIMME FIVECURRAHEESUPER TENFANCY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 77.5

PLACE

1 18.5

5 22

6 25

QUINELLA

5,6 194

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 56

1,6 68

5,6 66.5

FORECAST

6,5 465

TIERCE

6,5,1 2,437

TRIO

1,5,6 376

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 364

QUARTET

6,5,1,3 10,211

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,9/1,5,6 40,629

3RD DOUBLE

4/5 18.5

4/6 143