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Sha Tin · 2024-04-20 · 07:46

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. VALIANT ELEGANCE, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with HINOKAMI KAGURA second and EVERYONE'S VICTORY third. The 4.1 favourite MUST GO finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.08.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT 1.08.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D J Whyte 11 23.0 NOSE
2 8 HINOKAMI KAGURA PC/TT H Bentley · J Richards 2 4.8 NOSE
3 3 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT L Hewitson · F C Lor 3 20.0 2-1/2
4 2 SOLID SHALAA B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 6.0 2-3/4
5 1 MUST GO E/PC/TT B Avdulla · J Size 4 4.1 3-1/4
6 12 HAPPY TANGO B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 9 62.0 5
7 9 SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT K De Melo · W Y So 1 9.6 5
8 6 ROBOT KNIGHT Z Purton · T P Yung 5 4.5 6
9 5 LUCKY BANNER P-/H/TT A Badel · C Fownes 7 10.0 8-1/4
10 4 VANTASTIC CHOICE E C W Wong · C H Yip 12 17.0 8-1/2
11 7 SPICY SPANGLE K C Leung · P C Ng 8 125.0 14-1/4
10 MIRACLES Y L Chung · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VALIANT ELEGANCE2. HINOKAMI KAGURA+0.05L3. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+2.5L4. SOLID SHALAA+2.75L5. MUST GO+3.25L6. HAPPY TANGO+5L7. SMART LEADER+5L8. ROBOT KNIGHT+6L9. LUCKY BANNER+8.25L10. VANTASTIC CHOICE+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HINOKAMI KAGURA (18.0%) finished 2nd — the winner VALIANT ELEGANCE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 HINOKAMI KAGURA 18.0% 5.55 2
2 1 MUST GO 17.3% 5.78 5
3 6 ROBOT KNIGHT 14.1% 7.09 8
4 9 SMART LEADER 12.6% 7.95 7
5 2 SOLID SHALAA 12.5% 8.02 4
6 5 LUCKY BANNER 7.7% 12.97 9
7 4 VANTASTIC CHOICE 6.5% 15.40 10
8 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE 3.9% 25.71 1
9 12 HAPPY TANGO 3.7% 27.36 6
10 3 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 2.4% 42.11 3
11 7 SPICY SPANGLE 1.4% 70.12 11
HINOKAMI KAGURAMUST GOROBOT KNIGHTSMART LEADERSOLID SHALAALUCKY BANNERVANTASTIC CHOICEVALIANT ELEGANCE — wonHAPPY TANGOEVERYONE'S VICTORYSPICY SPANGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 233.5

PLACE

3 44.5

8 18

11 62.5

QUINELLA

8,11 703

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 158

3,11 692

8,11 211.5

FORECAST

11,8 1,852

TIERCE

11,8,3 33,230

TRIO

3,8,11 3,613

FIRST 4

2,3,8,11 3,756

QUARTET

11,8,3,2 124,319

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,10/3,8,11 517,511

5TH DOUBLE

1/8 47.5

1/11 1,867.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,5,6/1,8,10/Any Combination 5,193