Sha Tin · 2024-04-20 · 07:46
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. VALIANT ELEGANCE, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with HINOKAMI KAGURA second and EVERYONE'S VICTORY third. The 4.1 favourite MUST GO finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT 1.08.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 11 | 23.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 8 | HINOKAMI KAGURA PC/TT H Bentley · J Richards | H Bentley | J Richards | 2 | 4.8 | NOSE |
| 3 | 3 | EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 3 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | SOLID SHALAA B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 6 | 6.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | MUST GO E/PC/TT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 4.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | HAPPY TANGO B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 62.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 1 | 9.6 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | ROBOT KNIGHT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 5 | 4.5 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | LUCKY BANNER P-/H/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 7 | 10.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | VANTASTIC CHOICE E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 12 | 17.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | SPICY SPANGLE K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 8 | 125.0 | 14-1/4 |
| — | 10 | MIRACLES Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HINOKAMI KAGURA | 18.0% | 5.55 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | MUST GO | 17.3% | 5.78 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | ROBOT KNIGHT | 14.1% | 7.09 | 8 |
| 4 | 9 | SMART LEADER | 12.6% | 7.95 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | SOLID SHALAA | 12.5% | 8.02 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | LUCKY BANNER | 7.7% | 12.97 | 9 |
| 7 | 4 | VANTASTIC CHOICE | 6.5% | 15.40 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | VALIANT ELEGANCE | 3.9% | 25.71 | 1 |
| 9 | 12 | HAPPY TANGO | 3.7% | 27.36 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | EVERYONE'S VICTORY | 2.4% | 42.11 | 3 |
| 11 | 7 | SPICY SPANGLE | 1.4% | 70.12 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 233.5
PLACE
3 44.5
8 18
11 62.5
QUINELLA
8,11 703
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 158
3,11 692
8,11 211.5
FORECAST
11,8 1,852
TIERCE
11,8,3 33,230
TRIO
3,8,11 3,613
FIRST 4
2,3,8,11 3,756
QUARTET
11,8,3,2 124,319
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,8,10/3,8,11 517,511
5TH DOUBLE
1/8 47.5
1/11 1,867.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,5,6/1,8,10/Any Combination 5,193