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Sha Tin · 2024-05-11 · 05:31

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 9 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-11 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MASSIVE ACTION, ridden by H T Mo and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with WOODFIRE BRO second and BERLIN TANGO third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite M UNICORN finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.38.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 MASSIVE ACTION Wire to wire SR/V 1.38.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · F C Lor 1 6.5 SH
2 4 WOODFIRE BRO Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C W Chang 9 8.7 SH
3 3 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 8 7.8 N
4 2 APACHE PASS BO/XB H Bowman · P C Ng 4 7.3 1-3/4
5 6 SO WE JOY Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang 7 15.0 3-1/4
6 8 ROMANTIC CHARM V/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 2 8.4 4
7 1 ALACRITY CP-/XB/PC2/TT Z Purton · J Richards 3 9.1 4-1/4
8 7 SAMARKAND CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 5 24.0 5-1/2
9 5 M UNICORN H/P/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 2.9 26

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASSIVE ACTION2. WOODFIRE BRO+0.1L3. BERLIN TANGO+0.05L4. APACHE PASS+1.75L5. SO WE JOY+3.25L6. ROMANTIC CHARM+4L7. ALACRITY+4.25L8. SAMARKAND+5.5L9. M UNICORN+26L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick ALACRITY (21.2%) finished 7th — the winner MASSIVE ACTION was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ALACRITY 21.2% 4.72 7
2 8 ROMANTIC CHARM 16.1% 6.20 6
3 5 M UNICORN 15.9% 6.29 9
4 3 BERLIN TANGO 15.4% 6.51 3
5 2 APACHE PASS 7.9% 12.64 4
6 7 SAMARKAND 7.2% 13.93 8
7 4 WOODFIRE BRO 6.5% 15.48 2
8 6 SO WE JOY 6.0% 16.75 5
9 9 MASSIVE ACTION 3.9% 25.64 1
ALACRITYROMANTIC CHARMM UNICORNBERLIN TANGOAPACHE PASSSAMARKANDWOODFIRE BROSO WE JOYMASSIVE ACTION — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 65

PLACE

3 22

4 26.5

9 26.5

QUINELLA

4,9 366.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 109

3,9 114.5

4,9 120

FORECAST

9,4 693

TIERCE

9,4,3 5,662

TRIO

3,4,9 1,110

FIRST 4

2,3,4,9 1,781

QUARTET

9,4,3,2 52,285

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/4 77

4/9 595.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,13/3,4,9 16,413