Sha Tin · 2024-05-11 · 08:07
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-11 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CHANCHENG GLORY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with OUTGATE second and BOURBONAIRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CHANCHENG GLORY Closed strongly B/XB 1.34.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 3.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 8 | 6.8 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | BOURBONAIRE H A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 4 | 21.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 1 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | HELENE FEELING CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 2 | 5.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 9.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | FLAMING RABBIT Led early SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 6 | 6.1 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | MR ASCENDENCY TT H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 7 | 21.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | SWEET ENCOUNTER A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 5 | 10.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SPIRITED EXPRESS B/TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 10 | 13.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HELENE FEELING | 23.7% | 4.22 | 5 |
| 2 | 7 | CHANCHENG GLORY | 15.3% | 6.52 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | THE BEST PEACH | 12.7% | 7.90 | 6 |
| 4 | 8 | OUTGATE | 12.0% | 8.37 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | FLAMING RABBIT | 11.3% | 8.85 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | MR ASCENDENCY | 7.9% | 12.70 | 8 |
| 7 | 9 | BOURBONAIRE | 4.8% | 20.84 | 3 |
| 8 | 10 | SWEET ENCOUNTER | 4.3% | 23.21 | 9 |
| 9 | 1 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 4.0% | 24.73 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | SPIRITED EXPRESS | 4.0% | 24.95 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 37
PLACE
7 16.5
8 24.5
9 58.5
QUINELLA
7,8 139
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 57.5
7,9 138.5
8,9 248
FORECAST
7,8 274
TIERCE
7,8,9 2,778
TRIO
7,8,9 823
FIRST 4
1,7,8,9 2,906
QUARTET
7,8,9,1 31,917
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
11/7 712.5
11/8 264