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Sha Tin · 2024-05-11 · 08:07

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C 10 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-11 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CHANCHENG GLORY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with OUTGATE second and BOURBONAIRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CHANCHENG GLORY Closed strongly B/XB 1.34.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 3.7 3/4
2 8 OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 6.8 3/4
3 9 BOURBONAIRE H A Hamelin · J Size 4 21.0 2-1/4
4 1 THE GOLDEN SCENERY TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 1 17.0 2-3/4
5 4 HELENE FEELING CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 2 5.0 3-3/4
6 5 THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 9.0 6-3/4
7 2 FLAMING RABBIT Led early SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 6.1 7
8 3 MR ASCENDENCY TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 7 21.0 7-3/4
9 10 SWEET ENCOUNTER A Atzeni · J Size 5 10.0 8-1/4
10 6 SPIRITED EXPRESS B/TT A Badel · P F Yiu 10 13.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHANCHENG GLORY2. OUTGATE+0.75L3. BOURBONAIRE+2.25L4. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+2.75L5. HELENE FEELING+3.75L6. THE BEST PEACH+6.75L7. FLAMING RABBIT+7L8. MR ASCENDENCY+7.75L9. SWEET ENCOUNTER+8.25L10. SPIRITED EXPRESS+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HELENE FEELING (23.7%) finished 5th — the winner CHANCHENG GLORY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 HELENE FEELING 23.7% 4.22 5
2 7 CHANCHENG GLORY 15.3% 6.52 1
3 5 THE BEST PEACH 12.7% 7.90 6
4 8 OUTGATE 12.0% 8.37 2
5 2 FLAMING RABBIT 11.3% 8.85 7
6 3 MR ASCENDENCY 7.9% 12.70 8
7 9 BOURBONAIRE 4.8% 20.84 3
8 10 SWEET ENCOUNTER 4.3% 23.21 9
9 1 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 4.0% 24.73 4
10 6 SPIRITED EXPRESS 4.0% 24.95 10
HELENE FEELINGCHANCHENG GLORY — wonTHE BEST PEACHOUTGATEFLAMING RABBITMR ASCENDENCYBOURBONAIRESWEET ENCOUNTERTHE GOLDEN SCENERYSPIRITED EXPRESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 37

PLACE

7 16.5

8 24.5

9 58.5

QUINELLA

7,8 139

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 57.5

7,9 138.5

8,9 248

FORECAST

7,8 274

TIERCE

7,8,9 2,778

TRIO

7,8,9 823

FIRST 4

1,7,8,9 2,906

QUARTET

7,8,9,1 31,917

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

11/7 712.5

11/8 264