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Sha Tin · 2024-05-11 · 06:32

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUN OF MAKFI, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Hall, won by NOSE, with VIVA HUNTER second and MISSION BRAVO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite VIVA HUNTER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly B/XB 1.39.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Hall 9 28.0 NOSE
2 1 VIVA HUNTER Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · K L Man 2 4.4 NOSE
3 4 MISSION BRAVO Closed strongly B L Hewitson · M Newnham 12 15.0 SH
4 12 GO HERO B1/TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 5 16.0 HD
5 7 LUCKY BANNER Led early H/TT A Badel · C Fownes 4 15.0 1/2
5 9 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B B Thompson · C W Chang 10 19.0 1/2
7 6 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR H1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 5.8 1-3/4
8 10 MAYHEM H A Atzeni · F C Lor 6 8.6 1-3/4
9 8 STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly PC/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 1 5.9 2
10 2 PANDA LEGEND TT K De Melo · W Y So 3 17.0 2-1/2
11 3 G LINER H/P/XB/TT H Bowman · J Richards 8 10.0 2-3/4
12 5 FAST VICTORY B K Teetan · D A Hayes 11 9.8 5

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUN OF MAKFI2. VIVA HUNTER+0.05L3. MISSION BRAVO+0.1L4. GO HERO+0.2L5. LUCKY BANNER+0.5L5. FOREVER FOLKS+0.5L7. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+1.75L8. MAYHEM+1.75L9. STARSHIP EIGHTY+2L10. PANDA LEGEND+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STARSHIP EIGHTY (19.3%) finished 9th — the winner SUN OF MAKFI was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 STARSHIP EIGHTY 19.3% 5.19 9
2 6 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 15.2% 6.60 7
3 3 G LINER 10.9% 9.17 11
4 1 VIVA HUNTER 9.7% 10.36 2
5 2 PANDA LEGEND 8.1% 12.34 10
6 5 FAST VICTORY 7.8% 12.84 12
7 4 MISSION BRAVO 7.6% 13.22 3
8 11 SUN OF MAKFI 5.8% 17.33 1
9 7 LUCKY BANNER 5.6% 17.78 5
10 10 MAYHEM 5.5% 18.34 8
11 9 FOREVER FOLKS 2.8% 36.27 5
12 12 GO HERO 1.9% 51.37 4
STARSHIP EIGHTYTRIUMPHANT WARRIORG LINERVIVA HUNTERPANDA LEGENDFAST VICTORYMISSION BRAVOSUN OF MAKFI — wonLUCKY BANNERMAYHEMFOREVER FOLKSGO HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 285

PLACE

1 17

4 59.5

11 70

QUINELLA

1,11 631.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 177.5

1,11 197.5

4,11 603.5

FORECAST

11,1 1,633

TIERCE

11,1,4 27,681

TRIO

1,4,11 4,427

FIRST 4

1,4,11,12 17,687

QUARTET

11,1,4,12 419,085

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,10/1,4,11 52,431

3RD DOUBLE

10/1 31.5

10/11 1,247.5