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Sha Tin · 2024-05-11 · 07:37

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HAYDAY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with STEPS AHEAD second and LO PAN SPIRIT third. The 3.1 favourite PRINCE OF PORTY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 HAYDAY H/XB 1.09.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 13.0 N
2 7 STEPS AHEAD H Bowman · K W Lui 4 5.3 N
3 3 LO PAN SPIRIT B H Bentley · K H Ting 9 4.2 1-1/2
4 1 PRINCE OF PORTY CP/TT Z Purton · D J Hall 2 3.1 3-3/4
5 12 STRATHPEFFER B/TT1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte 3 5.3 5-1/4
6 5 LUCKY SYMPHONY H/P/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 1 12.0 5-3/4
7 6 SKY PROPHET B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 11 26.0 7
8 9 GALE SAGA B E C W Wong · P C Ng 12 77.0 8-1/4
9 4 CIRCUIT MAXIMUS TT1 L Hewitson · C S Shum 7 22.0 10
10 10 HERO WARRIOR CP1/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 6 205.0 15
11 2 SUPERSONIC XB B Thompson · M Newnham 10 114.0 15
12 8 CIRCUIT TEN H/P/TT K Teetan · W K Mo 5 49.0 17-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAYDAY2. STEPS AHEAD+0.05L3. LO PAN SPIRIT+1.5L4. PRINCE OF PORTY+3.75L5. STRATHPEFFER+5.25L6. LUCKY SYMPHONY+5.75L7. SKY PROPHET+7L8. GALE SAGA+8.25L9. CIRCUIT MAXIMUS+10L10. HERO WARRIOR+15L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PRINCE OF PORTY (19.9%) finished 4th — the winner HAYDAY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PRINCE OF PORTY 19.9% 5.02 4
2 3 LO PAN SPIRIT 17.8% 5.62 3
3 7 STEPS AHEAD 13.5% 7.43 2
4 12 STRATHPEFFER 11.9% 8.42 5
5 5 LUCKY SYMPHONY 9.6% 10.37 6
6 11 HAYDAY 9.3% 10.74 1
7 6 SKY PROPHET 6.2% 16.05 7
8 4 CIRCUIT MAXIMUS 4.7% 21.41 9
9 8 CIRCUIT TEN 3.9% 25.87 12
10 9 GALE SAGA 2.2% 44.69 8
11 2 SUPERSONIC 0.6% 177.02 11
12 10 HERO WARRIOR 0.5% 220.23 10
PRINCE OF PORTYLO PAN SPIRITSTEPS AHEADSTRATHPEFFERLUCKY SYMPHONYHAYDAY — wonSKY PROPHETCIRCUIT MAXIMUSCIRCUIT TENGALE SAGASUPERSONICHERO WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 135

PLACE

3 16

7 20.5

11 32

QUINELLA

7,11 422

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 47

3,11 86.5

7,11 121.5

FORECAST

11,7 862

TIERCE

11,7,3 3,780

TRIO

3,7,11 334

FIRST 4

1,3,7,11 218

QUARTET

11,7,3,1 8,316

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,12/3,7,11 5,345

5TH DOUBLE

6/7 39

6/11 501.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,4,11/3,6,12/3,7,11 3,695,721

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,11/3,6,12/Any Combination 19,936