Sha Tin · 2024-05-11 · 07:37
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HAYDAY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with STEPS AHEAD second and LO PAN SPIRIT third. The 3.1 favourite PRINCE OF PORTY finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HAYDAY H/XB 1.09.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 8 | 13.0 | N |
| 2 | 7 | STEPS AHEAD H Bowman · K W Lui | H Bowman | K W Lui | 4 | 5.3 | N |
| 3 | 3 | LO PAN SPIRIT B H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 9 | 4.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | PRINCE OF PORTY CP/TT Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 3.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | STRATHPEFFER B/TT1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 3 | 5.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | LUCKY SYMPHONY H/P/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 1 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | SKY PROPHET B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 26.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | GALE SAGA B E C W Wong · P C Ng | E C W Wong | P C Ng | 12 | 77.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | CIRCUIT MAXIMUS TT1 L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 7 | 22.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | HERO WARRIOR CP1/TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 6 | 205.0 | 15 |
| 11 | 2 | SUPERSONIC XB B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 10 | 114.0 | 15 |
| 12 | 8 | CIRCUIT TEN H/P/TT K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 5 | 49.0 | 17-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PRINCE OF PORTY | 19.9% | 5.02 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | LO PAN SPIRIT | 17.8% | 5.62 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | STEPS AHEAD | 13.5% | 7.43 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | STRATHPEFFER | 11.9% | 8.42 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | LUCKY SYMPHONY | 9.6% | 10.37 | 6 |
| 6 | 11 | HAYDAY | 9.3% | 10.74 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | SKY PROPHET | 6.2% | 16.05 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | CIRCUIT MAXIMUS | 4.7% | 21.41 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | CIRCUIT TEN | 3.9% | 25.87 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | GALE SAGA | 2.2% | 44.69 | 8 |
| 11 | 2 | SUPERSONIC | 0.6% | 177.02 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | HERO WARRIOR | 0.5% | 220.23 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 135
PLACE
3 16
7 20.5
11 32
QUINELLA
7,11 422
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 47
3,11 86.5
7,11 121.5
FORECAST
11,7 862
TIERCE
11,7,3 3,780
TRIO
3,7,11 334
FIRST 4
1,3,7,11 218
QUARTET
11,7,3,1 8,316
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,6,12/3,7,11 5,345
5TH DOUBLE
6/7 39
6/11 501.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,4,11/3,6,12/3,7,11 3,695,721
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,11/3,6,12/Any Combination 19,936