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Sha Tin · 2024-05-19 · 06:22

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GLORY ELITE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K H Ting, won by 3, with LUCY IN THE SKY second and SUPER BONUS third. The 1.8 favourite LUCY IN THE SKY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 GLORY ELITE H 1.09.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K H Ting 8 6.7 3
2 1 LUCY IN THE SKY H K Teetan · Y S Tsui 1 1.8 3
3 11 SUPER BONUS B/TT B Thompson · P C Ng 9 24.0 5-1/4
4 5 HAROLD WIN A Atzeni · K W Lui 2 12.0 5-1/4
5 7 SOLID WIN TT1 A Hamelin · P F Yiu 7 32.0 6
6 4 FUN N FUN TOGETHER C Y Ho · F C Lor 6 8.6 6-1/2
7 3 DRAGON FOUR SEAS C L Chau · K L Man 5 41.0 6-3/4
8 12 SPEEDY FORTUNE A Badel · J Size 4 14.0 7-1/2
9 2 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING B/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 3 11.0 7-1/2
10 9 GREAT SPIRIT B1/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip 11 17.0 7-3/4
11 10 CERVIN TT M L Yeung · W Y So 10 171.0 8
12 6 MR ENERGIA H Bentley · D J Hall 12 122.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORY ELITE2. LUCY IN THE SKY+3L3. SUPER BONUS+5.25L4. HAROLD WIN+5.25L5. SOLID WIN+6L6. FUN N FUN TOGETHER+6.5L7. DRAGON FOUR SEAS+6.75L8. SPEEDY FORTUNE+7.5L9. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+7.5L10. GREAT SPIRIT+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCY IN THE SKY (36.3%) finished 2nd — the winner GLORY ELITE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LUCY IN THE SKY 36.3% 2.75 2
2 8 GLORY ELITE 12.3% 8.10 1
3 4 FUN N FUN TOGETHER 11.8% 8.50 6
4 12 SPEEDY FORTUNE 7.3% 13.74 8
5 9 GREAT SPIRIT 6.9% 14.55 10
6 5 HAROLD WIN 6.4% 15.68 4
7 2 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 5.8% 17.34 9
8 3 DRAGON FOUR SEAS 5.5% 18.06 7
9 7 SOLID WIN 3.4% 29.66 5
10 11 SUPER BONUS 2.9% 34.41 3
11 6 MR ENERGIA 0.9% 115.10 12
12 10 CERVIN 0.6% 173.80 11
LUCY IN THE SKYGLORY ELITE — wonFUN N FUN TOGETHERSPEEDY FORTUNEGREAT SPIRITHAROLD WINYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGDRAGON FOUR SEASSOLID WINSUPER BONUSMR ENERGIACERVIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 67.5

PLACE

1 10.1

8 21

11 60.5

QUINELLA

1,8 54

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 26.5

1,11 100

8,11 247.5

FORECAST

8,1 178

TIERCE

8,1,11 2,474

TRIO

1,8,11 436

FIRST 4

1,5,8,11 1,071

QUARTET

8,1,11,5 20,047

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5/1,8,11 6,161

3RD DOUBLE

2/1 21

2/8 296