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Sha Tin · 2024-05-19 · 15:22

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.47.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SATIRICAL GLORY Wire to wire H- 1.47.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 4.4 1-1/2
2 4 JOY OF SPRING Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 4.3 1-1/2
3 3 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly V B Avdulla · D J Hall 1 6.3 2-3/4
4 11 SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 14 17.0 4
5 14 KINGLY DEMEANOR TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 12 93.0 4-3/4
6 13 LITTLE FAIRY V2/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 18.0 4-3/4
7 9 CHATEAU LE PECHE B A Atzeni · K H Ting 3 19.0 4-3/4
8 6 CALL ME SUPREME B/TT H Bowman · C W Chang 13 7.4 5
9 10 ME TIME Closed strongly SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 30.0 5-3/4
10 5 WINNING STEPS H/PC M F Poon · P C Ng 10 26.0 6-1/4
11 2 ROMANTIC FANTASY Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 4 12.0 8-1/4
12 12 PAKISTAN FRIEND P/TT K Teetan · W Y So 6 23.0 12-3/4
13 7 PING HAI COMET H A Badel · J Size 5 10.0 13-1/2
— 1 YOUNG BRILLIANT E C W Wong · C H Yip — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-19 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SATIRICAL GLORY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/2, with JOY OF SPRING second and FLYING MOJITO third. The winner led throughout. The 4.3 favourite JOY OF SPRING finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SATIRICAL GLORY—2. JOY OF SPRING+1.5L3. FLYING MOJITO+2.75L4. SPECIAL HEDGE+4L5. KINGLY DEMEANOR+4.75L6. LITTLE FAIRY+4.75L7. CHATEAU LE PECHE+4.75L8. CALL ME SUPREME+5L9. ME TIME+5.75L10. WINNING STEPS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick JOY OF SPRING (16.9%) finished 2nd — the winner SATIRICAL GLORY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 JOY OF SPRING 16.9% 5.91 2
2 8 SATIRICAL GLORY 14.8% 6.75 1
3 2 ROMANTIC FANTASY 12.9% 7.76 11
4 3 FLYING MOJITO 12.3% 8.13 3
5 6 CALL ME SUPREME 8.5% 11.79 8
6 11 SPECIAL HEDGE 6.0% 16.63 4
7 12 PAKISTAN FRIEND 5.8% 17.10 12
8 7 PING HAI COMET 5.1% 19.62 13
9 9 CHATEAU LE PECHE 4.8% 20.77 7
10 13 LITTLE FAIRY 4.5% 22.39 6
11 10 ME TIME 3.8% 26.41 9
12 5 WINNING STEPS 3.7% 27.22 10
13 14 KINGLY DEMEANOR 0.9% 113.38 5
JOY OF SPRINGSATIRICAL GLORY — wonROMANTIC FANTASYFLYING MOJITOCALL ME SUPREMESPECIAL HEDGEPAKISTAN FRIENDPING HAI COMETCHATEAU LE PECHELITTLE FAIRYME TIMEWINNING STEPSKINGLY DEMEANOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 44.5

PLACE

3 21

4 17.5

8 20.5

QUINELLA

4,8 121.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 56

3,8 55

4,8 49

FORECAST

8,4 197

TIERCE

8,4,3 838

TRIO

3,4,8 204

FIRST 4

3,4,8,11 691

QUARTET

8,4,3,11 10,078

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/8/1,4 193

2/8/8 2,847

4TH DOUBLE

8/1,4 40

8/8 567