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Sha Tin · 2024-05-19 · 07:52

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-19 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SKY TRUST, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with ARIEL second and MEEPMEEP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SKY TRUST Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.22.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 2 2.4 1/2
2 3 ARIEL Closed strongly CP/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 6 6.4 1/2
3 6 MEEPMEEP Closed strongly B1/TT1 Z Purton · J Size 1 5.9 3
4 4 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B B Avdulla · P F Yiu 3 8.6 3-1/2
5 1 THE ABSOLUTE Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 8 9.6 4-1/2
6 12 VULCANUS Closed strongly B Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 13 84.0 5-1/4
7 11 GREAT ACHIEVER B-/TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 11 40.0 6-1/4
8 5 WAR OF COURAGE B K H Chan · K L Man 14 12.0 7-1/2
9 13 HOSS Closed strongly B/XB/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 4 15.0 8-1/2
10 7 AMAZING AWARD Closed strongly B1/TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum 12 90.0 9-1/4
11 8 STARMEN TT A Atzeni · J Richards 7 132.0 10-3/4
12 14 HIGH RISE POWER Led early L Hewitson · K W Lui 9 41.0 11
13 9 GRAND CONQUEROR Closed strongly CP- A Badel · D J Hall 5 199.0 13-1/4
14 2 RUN RUN COOL PC H Bentley · F C Lor 10 45.0 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY TRUST2. ARIEL+0.5L3. MEEPMEEP+3L4. VOLCANIC SPARK+3.5L5. THE ABSOLUTE+4.5L6. VULCANUS+5.25L7. GREAT ACHIEVER+6.25L8. WAR OF COURAGE+7.5L9. HOSS+8.5L10. AMAZING AWARD+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MEEPMEEP (23.6%) finished 3rd — the winner SKY TRUST was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MEEPMEEP 23.6% 4.23 3
2 10 SKY TRUST 22.3% 4.49 1
3 3 ARIEL 11.8% 8.49 2
4 4 VOLCANIC SPARK 6.5% 15.34 4
5 5 WAR OF COURAGE 6.5% 15.42 8
6 1 THE ABSOLUTE 5.7% 17.57 5
7 2 RUN RUN COOL 5.0% 19.81 14
8 13 HOSS 3.9% 25.62 9
9 7 AMAZING AWARD 3.8% 26.26 10
10 14 HIGH RISE POWER 3.6% 27.49 12
11 11 GREAT ACHIEVER 3.0% 33.85 7
12 12 VULCANUS 2.1% 47.12 6
13 8 STARMEN 1.5% 65.43 11
14 9 GRAND CONQUEROR 0.6% 157.57 13
MEEPMEEPSKY TRUST — wonARIELVOLCANIC SPARKWAR OF COURAGETHE ABSOLUTERUN RUN COOLHOSSAMAZING AWARDHIGH RISE POWERGREAT ACHIEVERVULCANUSSTARMENGRAND CONQUEROR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 24

PLACE

3 20

6 21.5

10 12

QUINELLA

3,10 74.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 62

3,10 31.5

6,10 37

FORECAST

10,3 116

TIERCE

10,3,6 534

TRIO

3,6,10 146

FIRST 4

3,4,6,10 169

QUARTET

10,3,6,4 2,264

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,4,8/3,6,10 1,939

5TH DOUBLE

8/3 50.5

8/10 170.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,8,11/1,3,4,8/3,6,10 128,712

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,8,11/1,3,4,8/Any Combination 1,427