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Sha Tin · 2024-05-19 · 09:29

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-19 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FULL CREDIT, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by M Newnham, won by 1/2, with LADY'S CHOICE second and MAGNIFICENT NINE third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 FULL CREDIT 1.09.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · M Newnham 5 2.6 1/2
2 3 LADY'S CHOICE B/H K Teetan · C W Chang 6 6.3 1/2
3 6 MAGNIFICENT NINE B/E1 Z Purton · J Size 3 5.1 1-1/4
4 5 SUPER JOY N FUN C L Chau · T P Yung 4 7.3 1-1/4
5 10 LUCKY EIGHT TT- M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 20.0 2-1/4
6 9 CHAMPION INSTINCT B A Atzeni · D J Hall 10 9.8 3-1/2
7 11 CAPTAIN WIN B A Hamelin · P C Ng 9 22.0 3-3/4
8 1 IMA SINGLE MAN V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 17.0 3-3/4
9 2 MOJAVE DESERT H Bowman · D A Hayes 7 24.0 4
10 12 CONTI CONTI TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 1 95.0 5-3/4
11 7 WINNING DAY C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 60.0 6-1/4
12 8 WRITTEN CASA B1/TT1 B Thompson · J Richards 2 59.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FULL CREDIT2. LADY'S CHOICE+0.5L3. MAGNIFICENT NINE+1.25L4. SUPER JOY N FUN+1.25L5. LUCKY EIGHT+2.25L6. CHAMPION INSTINCT+3.5L7. CAPTAIN WIN+3.75L8. IMA SINGLE MAN+3.75L9. MOJAVE DESERT+4L10. CONTI CONTI+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FULL CREDIT (21.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 FULL CREDIT 21.0% 4.76 1
2 6 MAGNIFICENT NINE 16.9% 5.91 3
3 9 CHAMPION INSTINCT 13.2% 7.56 6
4 5 SUPER JOY N FUN 12.8% 7.84 4
5 3 LADY'S CHOICE 9.2% 10.82 2
6 2 MOJAVE DESERT 7.2% 13.98 9
7 1 IMA SINGLE MAN 6.9% 14.53 8
8 11 CAPTAIN WIN 4.2% 23.65 7
9 7 WINNING DAY 3.7% 26.95 11
10 10 LUCKY EIGHT 2.4% 40.82 5
11 8 WRITTEN CASA 1.9% 52.69 12
12 12 CONTI CONTI 0.5% 198.71 10
FULL CREDIT — wonMAGNIFICENT NINECHAMPION INSTINCTSUPER JOY N FUNLADY'S CHOICEMOJAVE DESERTIMA SINGLE MANCAPTAIN WINWINNING DAYLUCKY EIGHTWRITTEN CASACONTI CONTI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 26

PLACE

3 20

4 12.5

6 17.5

QUINELLA

3,4 83.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 34

3,6 51

4,6 29

FORECAST

4,3 125

TIERCE

4,3,6 355

TRIO

3,4,6 86

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 105

QUARTET

4,3,6,5 1,233

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

14/3 197

14/4 625