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Sha Tin · 2024-05-26 · 04:48

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-26 was Griffin over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THUNDER BLINK, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with SANTORINI second and RUN YES RUN third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 THUNDER BLINK 1.09.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K H Ting 5 2.5 SH
2 7 SANTORINI CP1 K Teetan · F C Lor 1 7.1 SH
3 12 RUN YES RUN CP M Chadwick · C W Chang 7 9.7 1
4 11 PATCH OF COSMO L Ferraris · K L Man 10 112.0 1-1/2
5 4 CALIFORNIA MOXIE CP/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 6 28.0 1-1/2
6 6 MEANINGFUL DRAGON CP1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 15.0 1-3/4
7 2 LA FORZA CP/TT Z Purton · J Richards 2 3.0 2-1/2
8 9 CONCORDE STAR TT1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui 4 93.0 3-3/4
9 3 CALIFORNIA BANNER CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 8 159.0 3-3/4
10 13 SUPREME WINNER B Thompson · C H Yip 3 166.0 6
11 10 ETALON OR A Badel · P F Yiu 14 12.0 6-1/4
12 5 LORD OF THE ROSE K H Chan · W Y So 9 227.0 7-1/4
13 8 SMART ZIPANG B1/TT1 K De Melo · W Y So 12 166.0 8-1/4
14 14 WORLD HERO A Atzeni · D A Hayes 13 30.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THUNDER BLINK2. SANTORINI+0.1L3. RUN YES RUN+1L4. PATCH OF COSMO+1.5L5. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+1.5L6. MEANINGFUL DRAGON+1.75L7. LA FORZA+2.5L8. CONCORDE STAR+3.75L9. CALIFORNIA BANNER+3.75L10. SUPREME WINNER+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LA FORZA (37.9%) finished 7th — the winner THUNDER BLINK was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LA FORZA 37.9% 2.64 7
2 1 THUNDER BLINK 18.2% 5.51 1
3 7 SANTORINI 11.6% 8.64 2
4 6 MEANINGFUL DRAGON 6.1% 16.38 6
5 4 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 5.2% 19.23 5
6 14 WORLD HERO 4.7% 21.11 14
7 12 RUN YES RUN 4.7% 21.42 3
8 10 ETALON OR 4.0% 24.96 11
9 11 PATCH OF COSMO 3.0% 33.66 4
10 8 SMART ZIPANG 2.4% 42.35 13
11 9 CONCORDE STAR 0.7% 135.18 8
12 3 CALIFORNIA BANNER 0.7% 138.51 9
13 13 SUPREME WINNER 0.4% 233.23 10
14 5 LORD OF THE ROSE 0.4% 253.14 12
LA FORZATHUNDER BLINK — wonSANTORINIMEANINGFUL DRAGONCALIFORNIA MOXIEWORLD HERORUN YES RUNETALON ORPATCH OF COSMOSMART ZIPANGCONCORDE STARCALIFORNIA BANNERSUPREME WINNERLORD OF THE ROSE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 25.5

PLACE

1 12.5

7 18.5

12 24.5

QUINELLA

1,7 99

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 35

1,12 43.5

7,12 62

FORECAST

1,7 167

TIERCE

1,7,12 639

TRIO

1,7,12 149

FIRST 4

1,7,11,12 2,467

QUARTET

1,7,12,11 19,386