Sha Tin · 2024-05-26 · 08:29
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-26 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. REBEL'S ROMANCE, ridden by W Buick and trained by C Appleby, won by 2, with FIVE G PATCH second and LA CITY BLANCHE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | REBEL'S ROMANCE Closed strongly XB 2.25.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) W Buick · C Appleby | W Buick | C Appleby | 8 | 1.4 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 7.5 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | LA CITY BLANCHE TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | MOMENTS IN TIME Led early TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 6 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | SENOR TOBA Closed strongly B-/TT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 3 | 89.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | MASSIVE SOVEREIGN Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 4 | 6.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR SR H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 1 | 19.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | STRAIGHT ARRON C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 13.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | MASSIVE SOVEREIGN | 30.8% | 3.25 | 6 |
| 2 | 2 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 18.8% | 5.32 | 8 |
| 3 | 3 | FIVE G PATCH | 13.9% | 7.19 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | MOMENTS IN TIME | 10.1% | 9.87 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | REBEL'S ROMANCE | 8.4% | 11.91 | 1 |
| 6 | 4 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR | 8.4% | 11.93 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 5.9% | 16.90 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | SENOR TOBA | 3.7% | 27.18 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 14.5
PLACE
1 11
3 14.5
5 27.5
QUINELLA
1,3 41.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 20
1,5 40.5
3,5 62.5
FORECAST
1,3 55
TIERCE
1,3,5 194
TRIO
1,3,5 102
FIRST 4
1,3,5,8 146
QUARTET
1,3,5,8 890
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
11/1 128.5
11/3 116