Sha Tin · 2024-05-26 · 06:18

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-26 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. BOTTOMUPTOGETHER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with AURORA LADY second and SUPER AXIOM third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.12

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	BOTTOMUPTOGETHER SR 0.56.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	3	135 lb	2.0	1-1/4
2	5	AURORA LADY B Avdulla · P C Ng	B Avdulla	P C Ng	5	127 lb	18.0	1-1/4
3	13	SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui	Y L Chung	Y S Tsui	1	118 lb	19.0	1-1/4
4	3	METRO WARRIOR B K C Leung · D A Hayes	K C Leung	D A Hayes	10	134 lb	18.0	1-1/2
5	7	MY WISH L Ferraris · M Newnham	L Ferraris	M Newnham	13	127 lb	25.0	2
6	2	MULTISUPER B/TT L Hewitson · P F Yiu	L Hewitson	P F Yiu	8	135 lb	7.4	4-3/4
7	4	RED ELEGANCE B A Atzeni · D J Whyte	A Atzeni	D J Whyte	4	132 lb	6.6	4-3/4
8	8	RAGNARR XB1/TT- H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	6	127 lb	22.0	5-1/4
9	6	CIRCUIT VICTORY M F Poon · K L Man	M F Poon	K L Man	12	125 lb	29.0	5-1/4
10	12	PROSECCO SR/V/TT K Teetan · W Y So	K Teetan	W Y So	11	122 lb	11.0	5-1/4
11	9	WINNING MONEY H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	2	126 lb	20.0	6-3/4
12	11	NEVER PETER OUT CP/TT C L Chau · W K Mo	C L Chau	W K Mo	9	121 lb	292.0	7-1/2
13	10	FLYING DRAGON XB H Bentley · C H Yip	H Bentley	C H Yip	7	125 lb	46.0	7-1/2
14	14	MOLLY'S WITNESS P-/CP1/TT B Thompson · J Richards	B Thompson	J Richards	14	120 lb	172.0	8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick BOTTOMUPTOGETHER (53.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	BOTTOMUPTOGETHER	53.4%	1.87	1	2.0
2	4	RED ELEGANCE	6.9%	14.56	7	6.6
3	2	MULTISUPER	6.6%	15.14	6	7.4
4	8	RAGNARR	5.0%	20.13	8	22.0
5	12	PROSECCO	4.8%	20.71	10	11.0
6	5	AURORA LADY	4.4%	22.54	2	18.0
7	13	SUPER AXIOM	4.4%	22.72	3	19.0
8	3	METRO WARRIOR	3.6%	27.56	4	18.0
9	9	WINNING MONEY	3.0%	33.07	11	20.0
10	7	MY WISH	2.7%	36.82	5	25.0
11	6	CIRCUIT VICTORY	2.5%	39.30	9	29.0
12	10	FLYING DRAGON	1.9%	53.48	13	46.0
13	11	NEVER PETER OUT	0.5%	211.43	12	292.0
14	14	MOLLY'S WITNESS	0.2%	402.31	14	172.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 20.5

PLACE

1 13

5 39

13 59

QUINELLA

1,5 165.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 71

1,13 93.5

5,13 430.5

FORECAST

1,5 258

TIERCE

1,5,13 3,467

TRIO

1,5,13 1,023

FIRST 4

1,3,5,13 4,098

QUARTET

1,5,13,3 49,656

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,9,11/1,5,13 282,189

3RD DOUBLE

9/1 250.5

9/5 197

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