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Sha Tin · 2024-05-26 · 09:05

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-26 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. BRIGHT INHERITANCE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C H Yip, won by 1/2, with TALENTS AMBITION second and JOYFUL PROSPERITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite CALIFORNIATOTALITY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.35.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BRIGHT INHERITANCE Closed strongly B 1.35.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 165.0 1/2
2 4 TALENTS AMBITION Closed strongly B/XB H Bentley · M Newnham 14 13.0 1/2
3 11 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly CP K Teetan · C W Chang 8 7.6 3/4
4 2 CALIFORNIATOTALITY B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 12 3.7 1-1/4
5 5 DARING PURSUIT TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 9.1 3
6 7 MISTER DAPPER CP/XB H Bowman · D J Whyte 3 6.9 4-1/4
7 9 GOOD GOOD B A Badel · J Size 13 53.0 4-3/4
8 13 NORTHERN BEAST M F Poon · D J Hall 2 12.0 5
9 3 MARADO Closed strongly C L Chau · W Y So 9 62.0 5-1/4
10 14 CHILLI BABA V A Atzeni · P F Yiu 4 7.8 5-1/2
11 12 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE Closed strongly CP-/TT2 K C Leung · D A Hayes 5 84.0 6
12 10 SOARING BRONCO Led early A Hamelin · P C Ng 11 13.0 6
13 8 CIRCUIT FIERY Z Purton · T P Yung 7 8.1 6-1/4
14 6 SMILING TIME V/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 6 44.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BRIGHT INHERITANCE2. TALENTS AMBITION+0.5L3. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+0.75L4. CALIFORNIATOTALITY+1.25L5. DARING PURSUIT+3L6. MISTER DAPPER+4.25L7. GOOD GOOD+4.75L8. NORTHERN BEAST+5L9. MARADO+5.25L10. CHILLI BABA+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CALIFORNIATOTALITY (18.8%) finished 4th — the winner BRIGHT INHERITANCE was rated #14. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CALIFORNIATOTALITY 18.8% 5.31 4
2 7 MISTER DAPPER 13.1% 7.61 6
3 8 CIRCUIT FIERY 12.3% 8.15 13
4 5 DARING PURSUIT 9.6% 10.42 5
5 14 CHILLI BABA 9.6% 10.45 10
6 11 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 9.4% 10.65 3
7 13 NORTHERN BEAST 7.8% 12.84 8
8 4 TALENTS AMBITION 7.7% 13.05 2
9 10 SOARING BRONCO 3.1% 32.08 12
10 3 MARADO 2.5% 40.71 9
11 6 SMILING TIME 2.3% 42.77 14
12 9 GOOD GOOD 2.2% 45.92 7
13 12 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE 1.2% 84.00 11
14 1 BRIGHT INHERITANCE 0.5% 219.73 1
CALIFORNIATOTALITYMISTER DAPPERCIRCUIT FIERYDARING PURSUITCHILLI BABAJOYFUL PROSPERITYNORTHERN BEASTTALENTS AMBITIONSOARING BRONCOMARADOSMILING TIMEGOOD GOODABSOLUTE SUNSHINEBRIGHT INHERITANCE — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 1,650

PLACE

1 307

4 43.5

11 27

QUINELLA

1,4 11,266

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 2,757

1,11 1,359

4,11 176

FORECAST

1,4 16,692

TIERCE

1,4,11 150,559

TRIO

1,4,11 17,955

FIRST 4

1,2,4,11 16,646

QUARTET

1,4,11,2 845,739

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,5/1,4,11 204,866

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 936.5

1/4 36