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Sha Tin · 2024-05-26 · 05:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-26 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SMART BEAUTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-3/4, with SPEEDSTAR second and JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.35.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.35.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 5 4.0 1-3/4
2 9 SPEEDSTAR Closed strongly B B Avdulla · D J Hall 1 5.2 1-3/4
3 2 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 4.3 1-3/4
4 6 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 6 26.0 2-1/2
5 12 FOXHUNTER WAY H T Mo · K W Lui 13 61.0 3
6 8 RIGHT HONOURABLE B/XB B Thompson · M Newnham 4 35.0 3-1/4
7 13 STAR OF GLORY Led early B M F Poon · C W Chang 2 4.7 4
8 14 BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly CP- A Badel · C H Yip 9 10.0 5
9 5 AROMATICA TT L Hewitson · W Y So 11 60.0 6
10 4 SUNNY BABY A Atzeni · D A Hayes 7 37.0 8
11 7 SPLENDID STAR TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 10 33.0 8-3/4
12 11 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 14 57.0 9-1/4
13 1 LADY BILLIE H/P M Chadwick · W K Mo 12 104.0 9-3/4
14 3 LOOKING COOL V-/SR/B1 K Teetan · F C Lor 3 17.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMART BEAUTY2. SPEEDSTAR+1.75L3. JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP+1.75L4. MEDIC ELITE+2.5L5. FOXHUNTER WAY+3L6. RIGHT HONOURABLE+3.25L7. STAR OF GLORY+4L8. BROTHER PEARL+5L9. AROMATICA+6L10. SUNNY BABY+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SMART BEAUTY (27.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SMART BEAUTY 27.7% 3.60 1
2 2 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP 15.2% 6.59 3
3 9 SPEEDSTAR 9.0% 11.10 2
4 13 STAR OF GLORY 7.6% 13.08 7
5 6 MEDIC ELITE 7.6% 13.08 4
6 14 BROTHER PEARL 6.9% 14.52 8
7 7 SPLENDID STAR 6.1% 16.48 11
8 11 SUPERB DADDY 4.7% 21.27 12
9 3 LOOKING COOL 4.3% 23.07 14
10 4 SUNNY BABY 3.9% 25.40 10
11 12 FOXHUNTER WAY 2.5% 40.19 5
12 5 AROMATICA 1.9% 52.38 9
13 8 RIGHT HONOURABLE 1.6% 61.37 6
14 1 LADY BILLIE 0.8% 119.83 13
SMART BEAUTY — wonJOYFUL FRIENDSHIPSPEEDSTARSTAR OF GLORYMEDIC ELITEBROTHER PEARLSPLENDID STARSUPERB DADDYLOOKING COOLSUNNY BABYFOXHUNTER WAYAROMATICARIGHT HONOURABLELADY BILLIE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 40

PLACE

2 16.5

9 19.5

10 16

QUINELLA

9,10 119.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 58.5

2,10 38.5

9,10 46.5

FORECAST

10,9 190

TIERCE

10,9,2 951

TRIO

2,9,10 187

FIRST 4

2,6,9,10 605

QUARTET

10,9,2,6 10,425

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/9 61

1/10 107

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,12/2,9,10 4,763