Sha Tin · 2024-05-26 · 07:56
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-26 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TOP PEAK, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/2, with FORERUNNER second and INVINCIBLE MISSILE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite STORMING DRAGON finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | TOP PEAK Closed strongly TT 1.21.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 7.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · W K Mo | A Hamelin | W K Mo | 11 | 9.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 13 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 13 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | STORMING DRAGON CP1/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 14 | 2.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | ALWAYS FLUKE Led early CP/H L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 4 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | BEAUTY ALLIANCE Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 12 | 36.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 2 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 14 | JOYFUL LIFE Closed strongly B-/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 7 | 3.4 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | EVER SMART H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 10 | 72.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | WIN SPEED B B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 5 | 126.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 2 | SEA AIR LEGEND TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 3 | 78.0 | 13 |
| 12 | 12 | TIGER AND GOLD B K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 1 | 163.0 | 13-1/2 |
| — | 1 | CHATEAUNEUF H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
| — | 10 | GAMEPLAYER WARRIOR L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | STORMING DRAGON | 45.5% | 2.20 | 4 |
| 2 | 11 | TOP PEAK | 8.7% | 11.49 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | ALWAYS FLUKE | 7.5% | 13.28 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 7.2% | 13.93 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | FORERUNNER | 6.4% | 15.54 | 2 |
| 6 | 14 | JOYFUL LIFE | 6.3% | 15.77 | 8 |
| 7 | 13 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 6.0% | 16.76 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | BEAUTY ALLIANCE | 4.9% | 20.27 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | EVER SMART | 4.7% | 21.28 | 9 |
| 10 | 2 | SEA AIR LEGEND | 1.1% | 87.93 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | WIN SPEED | 1.0% | 99.02 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | TIGER AND GOLD | 0.5% | 195.12 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 77.5
PLACE
9 25.5
11 20.5
13 41
QUINELLA
9,11 239.5
QUINELLA PLACE
9,11 77
9,13 165.5
11,13 156.5
FORECAST
11,9 502
TIERCE
11,9,13 5,980
TRIO
9,11,13 1,257
FIRST 4
4,9,11,13 598
QUARTET
11,9,13,4 19,804
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,7/9,11,13 93,435
5TH DOUBLE
1/9 45
1/11 171.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,5,13/1,2,7/Any Combination 5,179