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Sha Tin · 2024-05-26 · 10:20

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-26 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HUGE WAVE, ridden by A Badel and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with NEVER TOO SOON second and RUBYLOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite TOP GUN finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.21.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 HUGE WAVE Closed strongly TT 1.21.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K H Ting 6 40.0 3/4
2 9 NEVER TOO SOON Closed strongly K De Melo · D J Hall 10 28.0 3/4
3 10 RUBYLOT Closed strongly K C Leung · D A Hayes 7 3.6 3/4
4 12 BEAUTY FIT E/P A Hamelin · J Size 9 17.0 1
5 14 WINNING DATA B M Chadwick · P F Yiu 14 24.0 2-1/4
6 6 BEAUTY CRESCENT Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 8 12.0 2-1/4
7 5 SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly M F Poon · P C Ng 4 71.0 2-3/4
8 4 TOP GUN Led early K Teetan · F C Lor 2 3.2 3-1/4
9 2 GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly B2/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 12.0 3-1/2
10 3 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 1 29.0 3-3/4
11 13 NORTHERN BEACHES CP H Bentley · W Y So 12 30.0 3-3/4
12 8 TOURBILLON PRINCE TT Z Purton · T P Yung 3 9.3 4-1/4
13 7 SUPERB KID CP-/B1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 8.5 5-1/4
1 BLUE MARLIN H Bowman · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HUGE WAVE2. NEVER TOO SOON+0.75L3. RUBYLOT+0.75L4. BEAUTY FIT+1L5. WINNING DATA+2.25L6. BEAUTY CRESCENT+2.25L7. SUPREME AGILITY+2.75L8. TOP GUN+3.25L9. GALAXY WITNESS+3.5L10. RISING FROM ASHES+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TOP GUN (28.7%) finished 8th — the winner HUGE WAVE was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TOP GUN 28.7% 3.49 8
2 8 TOURBILLON PRINCE 16.8% 5.94 12
3 7 SUPERB KID 13.2% 7.59 13
4 10 RUBYLOT 9.6% 10.37 3
5 14 WINNING DATA 5.6% 17.87 5
6 6 BEAUTY CRESCENT 5.1% 19.74 6
7 13 NORTHERN BEACHES 5.0% 20.02 11
8 2 GALAXY WITNESS 4.0% 25.00 9
9 12 BEAUTY FIT 3.6% 27.40 4
10 5 SUPREME AGILITY 3.2% 31.58 7
11 9 NEVER TOO SOON 2.3% 43.72 2
12 11 HUGE WAVE 1.6% 61.85 1
13 3 RISING FROM ASHES 1.3% 77.10 10
TOP GUNTOURBILLON PRINCESUPERB KIDRUBYLOTWINNING DATABEAUTY CRESCENTNORTHERN BEACHESGALAXY WITNESSBEAUTY FITSUPREME AGILITYNEVER TOO SOONHUGE WAVE — wonRISING FROM ASHES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 404.5

PLACE

9 72.5

10 15

11 85.5

QUINELLA

9,11 4,495

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 162

9,11 1,116

10,11 211

FORECAST

11,9 7,420

TIERCE

11,9,10 38,924

TRIO

9,10,11 4,176

FIRST 4

9,10,11,12 13,178

QUARTET

11,9,10,12 438,888

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/9/9 15,028

1/9/11 72,430

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,9/9,10,11 153,099

9TH DOUBLE

9/9 107.5

9/11 532.5

SIX UP

1,7/9,11/1,3/1,4/1,9/9,11 43,682

1/11/1/1/9/11 1,999,256

1 [Z Purton]

1 [K W Lui], 21 [Others]