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Sha Tin · 2024-05-26 · 18:19

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 HUGE WAVE Closed strongly TT 1.21.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K H Ting 6 40.0 3/4
2 9 NEVER TOO SOON Closed strongly K De Melo · D J Hall 10 28.0 3/4
3 10 RUBYLOT Closed strongly K C Leung · D A Hayes 7 3.6 3/4
4 12 BEAUTY FIT E/P A Hamelin · J Size 9 17.0 1
5 14 WINNING DATA B M Chadwick · P F Yiu 14 24.0 2-1/4
6 6 BEAUTY CRESCENT Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 8 12.0 2-1/4
7 5 SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly M F Poon · P C Ng 4 71.0 2-3/4
8 4 TOP GUN Led early K Teetan · F C Lor 2 3.2 3-1/4
9 2 GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly B2/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 12.0 3-1/2
10 3 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 1 29.0 3-3/4
11 13 NORTHERN BEACHES CP H Bentley · W Y So 12 30.0 3-3/4
12 8 TOURBILLON PRINCE TT Z Purton · T P Yung 3 9.3 4-1/4
13 7 SUPERB KID CP-/B1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 8.5 5-1/4
— 1 BLUE MARLIN H Bowman · D J Whyte — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-26 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HUGE WAVE, ridden by A Badel and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with NEVER TOO SOON second and RUBYLOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite TOP GUN finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HUGE WAVE—2. NEVER TOO SOON+0.75L3. RUBYLOT+0.75L4. BEAUTY FIT+1L5. WINNING DATA+2.25L6. BEAUTY CRESCENT+2.25L7. SUPREME AGILITY+2.75L8. TOP GUN+3.25L9. GALAXY WITNESS+3.5L10. RISING FROM ASHES+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TOP GUN (28.7%) finished 8th — the winner HUGE WAVE was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TOP GUN 28.7% 3.49 8
2 8 TOURBILLON PRINCE 16.8% 5.94 12
3 7 SUPERB KID 13.2% 7.59 13
4 10 RUBYLOT 9.6% 10.37 3
5 14 WINNING DATA 5.6% 17.87 5
6 6 BEAUTY CRESCENT 5.1% 19.74 6
7 13 NORTHERN BEACHES 5.0% 20.02 11
8 2 GALAXY WITNESS 4.0% 25.00 9
9 12 BEAUTY FIT 3.6% 27.40 4
10 5 SUPREME AGILITY 3.2% 31.58 7
11 9 NEVER TOO SOON 2.3% 43.72 2
12 11 HUGE WAVE 1.6% 61.85 1
13 3 RISING FROM ASHES 1.3% 77.10 10
TOP GUNTOURBILLON PRINCESUPERB KIDRUBYLOTWINNING DATABEAUTY CRESCENTNORTHERN BEACHESGALAXY WITNESSBEAUTY FITSUPREME AGILITYNEVER TOO SOONHUGE WAVE — wonRISING FROM ASHES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 404.5

PLACE

9 72.5

10 15

11 85.5

QUINELLA

9,11 4,495

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 162

9,11 1,116

10,11 211

FORECAST

11,9 7,420

TIERCE

11,9,10 38,924

TRIO

9,10,11 4,176

FIRST 4

9,10,11,12 13,178

QUARTET

11,9,10,12 438,888

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/9/9 15,028

1/9/11 72,430

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,9/9,10,11 153,099

9TH DOUBLE

9/9 107.5

9/11 532.5

SIX UP

1,7/9,11/1,3/1,4/1,9/9,11 43,682

1/11/1/1/9/11 1,999,256

1 [Z Purton] —

1 [K W Lui], 21 [Others] —