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Sha Tin · 2024-06-02 · 12:48

Race 10

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-02 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HANDSOME BOMB, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with GRAND BOSS second and RUBY SAILING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite TOP SCORER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 HANDSOME BOMB Closed strongly TT 1.22.14 A Atzeni · W Y So 8 14.0 1-1/4
2 4 GRAND BOSS Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 33.0 1-1/4
3 12 RUBY SAILING TT M Chadwick · K L Man 1 11.0 1-3/4
4 3 TOP SCORER Led early H Bowman · J Size 6 2.4 1-3/4
5 14 HOSS B/XB/TT B Thompson · P C Ng 5 41.0 2-1/4
6 1 MY FLYING ANGEL V-/CP2 A Badel · F C Lor 12 7.0 2-1/4
7 2 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly CP H Bentley · D J Hall 9 16.0 3
8 7 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly XB K Teetan · K H Ting 4 7.6 3
9 6 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 14 21.0 4
10 11 EXCELLENT DADDY Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · T P Yung 10 109.0 4-1/4
11 13 VULCANUS Closed strongly B Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 11 77.0 5-1/4
12 8 SMART FIGHTER TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 6.4 7-1/4
13 9 C P ONE Closed strongly B/TT K De Melo · J Richards 13 145.0 9
14 10 NOT A FEW CP/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 3 93.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HANDSOME BOMB—2. GRAND BOSS+1.25L3. RUBY SAILING+1.75L4. TOP SCORER+1.75L5. HOSS+2.25L6. MY FLYING ANGEL+2.25L7. LET'S DO IT+3L8. SMILING COLLECTOR+3L9. HAPPY DAILY+4L10. EXCELLENT DADDY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TOP SCORER (24.6%) finished 4th — the winner HANDSOME BOMB was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 TOP SCORER 24.6% 4.06 4
2 8 SMART FIGHTER 23.1% 4.34 12
3 12 RUBY SAILING 10.7% 9.38 3
4 7 SMILING COLLECTOR 9.7% 10.33 8
5 1 MY FLYING ANGEL 5.7% 17.62 6
6 2 LET'S DO IT 5.5% 18.17 7
7 6 HAPPY DAILY 5.0% 20.04 9
8 5 HANDSOME BOMB 4.2% 23.83 1
9 14 HOSS 3.2% 30.78 5
10 11 EXCELLENT DADDY 2.9% 34.16 10
11 13 VULCANUS 2.8% 35.67 11
12 10 NOT A FEW 1.0% 98.82 14
13 9 C P ONE 0.9% 105.27 13
14 4 GRAND BOSS 0.7% 145.69 2
TOP SCORERSMART FIGHTERRUBY SAILINGSMILING COLLECTORMY FLYING ANGELLET'S DO ITHAPPY DAILYHANDSOME BOMB — wonHOSSEXCELLENT DADDYVULCANUSNOT A FEWC P ONEGRAND BOSS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends recorded for this race.

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