Sha Tin · 2024-06-02 · 13:23
Race 11
Class 3
GOOD TO FIRM
1400m
Course B
14 runners
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-02 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LOST CHILD, ridden by B Thompson and trained by C W Chang, won by 3/4, with JOLLY RULER second and SECOND TO NONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite SECOND TO NONE finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | LOST CHILD Closed strongly 1.21.79 B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 5 | 8.6 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | JOLLY RULER Closed strongly CP/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 4 | 12.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | SECOND TO NONE Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 3.5 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | STORM RIDER K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 9 | 5.5 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY CP/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | SOLID IMPACT Closed strongly CP H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 10 | 6.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | CAPITAL LEGEND TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 7 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | HARMONY GALAXY Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 3 | 118.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly B-/E1 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 12 | 35.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | ONLY U Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 2 | 39.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 13 | CITY THUNDER TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 14 | 69.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | TURIN STARSPANGLED Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 13 | 104.0 | 6 |
| 13 | 11 | PRINCIPLED TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 11 | 88.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 8 | MANRAY HONOUR Led early TT1 M L Yeung · W K Mo | M L Yeung | W K Mo | 6 | 97.0 | 13-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick SECOND TO NONE (27.8%) finished 3rd — the winner LOST CHILD was rated #7.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SECOND TO NONE | 27.8% | 3.59 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | STORM RIDER | 11.2% | 8.89 | 4 |
| 3 | 9 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 10.9% | 9.20 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | SOLID IMPACT | 9.9% | 10.07 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | CAPITAL LEGEND | 9.8% | 10.24 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | JOLLY RULER | 6.9% | 14.57 | 2 |
| 7 | 14 | LOST CHILD | 5.1% | 19.76 | 1 |
| 8 | 1 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 4.8% | 20.70 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | ONLY U | 4.1% | 24.35 | 10 |
| 10 | 3 | TURIN STARSPANGLED | 2.3% | 44.42 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | PRINCIPLED | 2.2% | 45.82 | 13 |
| 12 | 8 | MANRAY HONOUR | 1.9% | 51.82 | 14 |
| 13 | 13 | CITY THUNDER | 1.9% | 53.21 | 11 |
| 14 | 5 | HARMONY GALAXY | 1.3% | 79.80 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.