Sha Tin · 2024-06-02 · 09:02
Race 3
Class 5
GOOD
1400m
Course B
14 runners
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-02 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. THE CONCENTRATION, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with AROMATICA second and TACTICAL COMMAND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite GENERAL WINNER finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | THE CONCENTRATION Closed strongly PC 1.22.71 L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 12 | 31.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | AROMATICA Closed strongly TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 2 | 22.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | TACTICAL COMMAND Closed strongly B A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 1 | 6.4 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | JAZZ CLUB B Avdulla · K L Man | B Avdulla | K L Man | 14 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 14 | DRAGON KINGDOM Led early B Thompson · Y S Tsui | B Thompson | Y S Tsui | 5 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 3 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | CHARMANDER Closed strongly B-/TT- K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 8 | 6.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB/TT1 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 7 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | GENERAL WINNER Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 11 | 4.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | CASA LEGEND Closed strongly P/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 10 | 8.5 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | NOBLE ONE B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 13 | 22.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | HARMONY N HOME Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 9 | 36.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 2 | MAXIMIZE HEART V- H Bowman · C H Yip | H Bowman | C H Yip | 4 | 13.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 13 | HAPPIHOOD TT M L Yeung · W K Mo | M L Yeung | W K Mo | 6 | 24.0 | 8-1/2 |
| — | 0 | DIAMOND DIAMOND L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick TACTICAL COMMAND (15.0%) finished 3rd — the winner THE CONCENTRATION was rated #14.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TACTICAL COMMAND | 15.0% | 6.67 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | CHARMANDER | 11.2% | 8.92 | 7 |
| 3 | 12 | GENERAL WINNER | 10.4% | 9.61 | 9 |
| 4 | 6 | JAZZ CLUB | 9.3% | 10.76 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | NOBLE WIN | 8.4% | 11.95 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | CASA LEGEND | 7.8% | 12.82 | 10 |
| 7 | 1 | HARMONY N HOME | 6.5% | 15.49 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | NOBLE ONE | 6.5% | 15.49 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | MAXIMIZE HEART | 6.4% | 15.54 | 13 |
| 10 | 11 | CHIRON | 6.2% | 16.08 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | AROMATICA | 4.4% | 22.76 | 2 |
| 12 | 13 | HAPPIHOOD | 3.9% | 25.83 | 14 |
| 13 | 14 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 2.1% | 48.35 | 5 |
| 14 | 7 | THE CONCENTRATION | 2.0% | 48.93 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 2
Race 4 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m
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