Sha Tin · 2024-06-02 · 11:39
Race 8
Group 3
GOOD TO FIRM
1600m
Course B
7 runners
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-02 was Group 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GALAXY PATCH, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P C Ng, won by NOSE, with CHANCHENG GLORY second and BEAUTY JOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GALAXY PATCH Closed strongly 1.33.93 C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 1 | 2.3 | NOSE |
| 2 | 8 | CHANCHENG GLORY Led early B/XB L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 3 | 2.7 | NOSE |
| 3 | 1 | BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 7 | 9.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | TAJ DRAGON A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 6 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | ATULLIBIGEAL B/H/XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 2 | 8.2 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | ENCOUNTERED TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 4 | 26.0 | 13-3/4 |
| — | 5 | SUPER SUNNY SING K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick ATULLIBIGEAL (27.0%) finished 5th — the winner GALAXY PATCH was rated #2.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | ATULLIBIGEAL | 27.0% | 3.71 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | GALAXY PATCH | 26.1% | 3.83 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | CHANCHENG GLORY | 16.7% | 6.00 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | TAJ DRAGON | 11.9% | 8.37 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | BEAUTY JOY | 7.1% | 14.01 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 6.1% | 16.52 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | ENCOUNTERED | 5.1% | 19.62 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 7
Race 9 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m
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