Sha Tin · 2024-06-15 · 13:53
Race 11
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-15 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on SOFT going. KARMA, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with ORIENTAL SMOKE second and SIMPLE HEDGE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite AEROINVINCIBLE finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KARMA Closed strongly TT 1.35.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 13 | 5.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | ORIENTAL SMOKE Led early B B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 11 | 30.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly E B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 7 | 9.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | PRAY FOR MIR M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 5 | 42.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | CHING Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 2 | 9.7 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | YOUNG ACHIEVER Closed strongly SR1/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 6 | 22.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | BEAUTY LIVE CP2/TT Y L Chung · F C Lor | Y L Chung | F C Lor | 8 | 24.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | KEMPES H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 10 | 31.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | POWERFUL WINGS CP-/B2 A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 4 | 9.9 | 9-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | AEROINVINCIBLE H/SR/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 3 | 2.4 | 10 |
| 11 | 13 | SILVER UP B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 12 | 10.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | FIND MY LOVE TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 1 | 33.0 | 18-3/4 |
| 13 | 10 | WAH MAY WAI WAI H M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 9 | 79.0 | 31-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | AEROINVINCIBLE | 20.3% | 4.93 | 10 |
| 2 | 5 | YOUNG ACHIEVER | 19.5% | 5.14 | 6 |
| 3 | 12 | POWERFUL WINGS | 10.9% | 9.17 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | KARMA | 10.7% | 9.31 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | CHING | 10.6% | 9.40 | 5 |
| 6 | 13 | SILVER UP | 9.4% | 10.67 | 11 |
| 7 | 7 | BEAUTY LIVE | 4.3% | 23.09 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | PRAY FOR MIR | 3.4% | 29.17 | 4 |
| 9 | 6 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 3.2% | 30.84 | 3 |
| 10 | 1 | FIND MY LOVE | 2.5% | 40.71 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 2.1% | 47.61 | 2 |
| 12 | 2 | KEMPES | 2.0% | 49.35 | 8 |
| 13 | 10 | WAH MAY WAI WAI | 1.0% | 96.84 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 54.5
PLACE
4 20
6 25.5
8 73.5
QUINELLA
4,8 1,206.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 116.5
4,8 339
6,8 330
FORECAST
4,8 1,739
TIERCE
4,8,6 14,843
TRIO
4,6,8 2,482
FIRST 4
4,6,8,9 13,234
QUARTET
4,8,6,9 293,493
All pools (4 more)
10TH DOUBLE
7/4 188.5
7/8 173.5
2ND TREBLE
6/7/4 584
6/7/8 669
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
7,8,9/4,6,8 74,994
SIX UP
2,3/6,10/5,7/1,6,8/7,8/4,8 1,953
2/10/5/6/7/4 34,279
1 [Z Purton] —
3 [P F Yiu] —